WASHINGTON — A former leading U.S. intelligence chief said Israel does not have
sufficient assets or support for a major attack required to destroy Iran's
nuclear weapons program.
Other speakers at a March 23 seminar at the Washington-based Nixon Center doubted whether diplomacy by the United States or the United Nations would halt or
even slow down Iran's nuclear weapons program.
The speakers said Iran was using its
development of weapons of mass destruction to dominate the Gulf region, Middle East Newsline reported.
"There is opposition sentiment within Iran but no viable opposition
force," said Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council for Foreign Relations and author of a
book on Iran.
"There is this assumption that the Iranian public is
apathetic because it is information starved. It's not. It's just apathetic."
The intelligence official cited the absence of Israeli
aircraft carriers and the need for warplanes to enter the air space of Arab
rivals.
"The United States is the only country in the world that has capability
of carrying out the estimated thousand strike sorties needed to destroy the
Iran's nuclear program," [Ret.] Col. Patrick Lang, director of the Middle
East section of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said. "The objective has to
be not to destroy the program, but to set it back a desired number of
years."
But Lang told a March 23 seminar at the Washington-based Nixon Center that such a campaign could put at risk other U.S. initiatives in the region.
Israel's military could not sustain an air campaign against Iran. He cited
the more than 1,500 kilometers from Israel to Iran as well as a shortage of
Israeli combat aircraft.
In his presentation, Lang said an air campaign was the only serious
option in trying to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program. He dismissed the
effectiveness of any ground invasion as "unthinkable."
"No real army can be sustained on air transportation," Lang said.
Lang said the United States could destroy or at least disrupt Iran's
nuclear weapons program. But he said this would exert a significant strain
on the U.S. military in neighboring Iraq.
The United States must consider the likelihood of massive and varied
Iranian retaliation, Lang said. He said this could include the escalation of
the insurgency in Iraq as well strikes on U.S. interests throughout the
Middle East by such Iranian-financed groups as Hamas, Hizbullah and Islamic
Jihad.
"Iran is the world's largest state sponsor of terror," Lang said. "There
is no reason to think that they would not respond."
"There are issues where they will negotiate but not acquiesce," said Ray
Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council for Foreign Relations and author of a
book on Iran. "If the purpose of the Security Council negotiations is to
stop the fuel cycle, then you are not going to get it."
Takeyh also doubted the effectiveness of U.S. efforts to destablize
Iran, particularly by opposition broadcasts. He said the Iranian opposition
was unlikely to overthrow the powerful regime in Teheran.
