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Covered by China, Iran again defies a UN deadline


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By John Metzler
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Monday, September 4, 2006

UNITED NATIONS — Another breathless diplomatic ultimatum has passed. Another line in the sand has been blown away by the winds of time. And now another showdown looms as the UN Security Council is yet again set to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran over that country’s unchecked nuclear proliferation.

The Atomic Ayatollahs seem to revel in confronting and defying diplomatic deadlines and the Teheran rulers seem bent on pursuing the nuclear genie in spite of the current threat of low level economic sanctions. Indeed the traditional Persian penchant for creative bargaining has in many cases run circles around the Europeans and no doubt will charm UN Secretary General Kofi Annan when he visits Teheran.

While much of the international community seems flustered, the Islamic Republic becomes emboldened to pursue a path which in the assessment of many national intelligence agencies could lead to a nuclear armed Iran.

This is not purely an American analysis but one shared by Britain, France and Germany. And let’s face it Russia, the actual enabler of the nuclear technology for purportedly civilian purposes, knows only too well that such a scientific pipeline can be converted to military goals. Iran’s uranium enrichment proceeds apace according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The current confrontation is hardly novel. The nuclear proliferation crisis has been brewing for years and came to a near boil this year. Diplomatic pressures on the Iranian leadership especially the hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad earlier this summer were sidetracked by Iranian activation of terrorist cells in Lebanon which ignited the crisis there. As I wrote, there a clear cause and effect between the sudden flare-up in Lebanon in early July and the pressures on Iran. Quite simply the Islamic Republic created a smokescreen crisis through its proxy Hizbollah. Lebanon paid the price.

The indignation in the Security Council will likely amuse the Iranian radicals who use the nuclear card as a nationalistic talisman for a regime which has failed terribly domestically but who has played a wily diplomatic game. That game is not over.

Any economic sanctions on Iran still would have to pass through the UN Security Council in which both Russia and the People’s Republic of China hold blocking vetoes; thus for all practical purposes Washington’s initiative will simply bring diplomats down a blind alley. Given that Beijing has a $100 billion long-term deal with Teheran to develop energy, it’s not likely China will opt for economic sanctions on a business partner.

Teheran’s commercial partners in Moscow and Beijing are not likely to significantly risk their deals by supporting any meaningful united front on sanctions. Moreover, while both Russia and People’s China also face a risk from a nuclear armed Iran, (Muslims in Russia and China face serious discrimination) the political calculations remain that the threat is even higher to America and obviously Israel.

The USA, Britain, France and Germany could pursue a parallel sanctions or isolation path but let’s face it, given their dependence on Iran’s petroleum exports and/or the danger of Teheran activating proxy terrorists in Lebanon, Europe or inside Iraq this course is not sustainable long term. An interlocking web of energy contracts between Iran and scores of countries insure lackluster cooperation on any economic isolation.

Of course there’s the looming threat of an oil boycott, which let’s not forget was one of the many sordid legacies of the early years of Ayatollahs rule in Iran. Teheran knows that even the threat of a boycott can send markets reeling. Few countries wish to risk such a high stakes game.

This increasingly narrows the diplomatic options and widens the chances for military scenarios. Still given the security imbroglio in Iraq, the Iranian leadership calculates that any such overt American action is unlikely.

Iran’s callous contempt for international opinion and law puts Teheran regime in dangerous waters. By ignoring the latest UN deadline, the Islamic Republic of Iran insures its continuing role as an international pariah state.


John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.