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The 'Summer of Missiles'


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By John Metzler
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Monday, July 31, 2006

BENNINGTON, Vt — First it was the North Koreans who shot off seven missiles, two of them long range, to shatter the morning calm of East Asia. Then in the Middle East, the Hizbullah terrorists decided to have another go at their arch enemy Israel and launched barrages of short-range Katusha rockets which punctured the uneasy quiet of northern Israel and in turn triggered the current conflict in Lebanon. And we have not heard from the Islamic Republic of Iran whose long-range missiles and nearly operational nuclear program poses a clear and present danger not only to Israel but to Western Europe as well.

As I stated in an earlier column, Hizbullah’s attacks on Israel were a clearly calculated smokescreen to give diplomatic cover to their patrons in Islamic Iran. Given the growing diplomatic pressures on Teheran for its embryonic nuclear program the Iranians needed a diversion. Hizbullah provided it, but probably did not count on the ferocity of the Israeli defensive response. Now sadly, the Lebanese people are paying the price.

There’s a mixed message here. North Korea’s rockets went off like wet firecrackers, at least this time around. They were duds and misfires—so much for the glorious socialist technology. And despite Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons arsenal, so far there’s not an effective delivery system. Equally Hizbullah’s Katusha rockets, an old Soviet system known more to terrorize than to effectively hit the target, has not tipped the military balance of power away from Israel. It has spread fear, caused serious social and economic disruptions in northern Israel, but caused limited casualties.

But the North Koreans may get lucky on another try and the Iranians have more accurate missiles which can deliver chemical or someday nuclear weapons. As to targets, North Korea’s “Dear Leader” dictator Kim Jong-il likely has Japan on the short list in any conflict. Meantime the Atomic Ayatollahs of the Islamic Republic of Iran have boastfully stated that Israel remains their primary target for obliteration. Happily this is easier said than done.

Enter the diplomats. In the Korean case the UN Security Council was able to pass a fairly robust American/Japanese resolution which sanctions sales of technology and hardware to communist North Korea. Though the enforcement option is lacking, even People’s China and Russia supported the text which effectively slaps the hand of their erstwhile comrades in the quaintly titled Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Now the real game begins; resumption of the multilateral Six Party talks to de-nuclearize North Korea. Both Korean states South and North, as well as the United States, Japan, the People’s Republic of China and Russia, will continue trying to defuse Pyongyang’s weapons program. Mainland China, North Korea’s longtime political patron, may realize it is not well served by coddling the rogue Marxist Hermit Kingdom. Pyongyang appears to possess diminishing political leverage but can mendaciously play the instability card.

Solving the Iranian case is more complex. Despite diplomatic harmony between the West Europeans (France, Germany and the United Kingdom) and the U.S., serious pressure on Iran can create the unintended consequence of an oil embargo as well as an unleashing of Teheran sponsored proxy terrorist forces in Europe. Iran equally has for more standing in the Islamic world. Given its flow of petrodollars, Iran can also pay for military technology as well as bluff about using its potent oil weapon. Moreover Teheran can probably count on the Security Council veto of either Beijing or Moscow if push really comes to shove from Washington. Recall that China has serious energy contracts with Iran while Russia is building a civilian nuclear power program.

So now it’s the Summer of Missiles. Sadly this will not be the end of it. Someday in the not too distant future we may face more accurate Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Israel, an operational North Korean Taepodong II rocket which shadows the West Coast USA, and equally another East Asian situation where communist China’s missiles threaten democratic Taiwan.

Washington would do well to diplomatically defuse these crises before it really becomes too late.


John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.