Wafer thin election outcomes and individual voter power
UNITED NATIONS — The inconclusive and cliffhanger outcome of Italy’s recent elections illustrates once again the power of the single vote. The narrow majority won by the Italy’s leftist coalition is not unique though—election outcomes the world over have shown a near perfect 50/50 divide in so many countries. Let’s face it, from the Florida fiasco in the U.S. 2000 Presidential election to Germany’s vote late last year, to a host of other cases, the impact of the individual vote has grown dramatically.
Take Italy’s case. A bitterly contested parliamentary election between the incumbent pro-business Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and his leftist challenger Romano Prodi came down to 49.8 percent versus 49.7 percent!!!. Given the quirks of a new election law which guarantees a block of 340 seats in the 630 seat chamber, to the winner Prodi thus gained 348 parliamentary seats while Berlusconi garnered 281. In the Roman Senate the split was narrow; 158 for Prodi and 156 to Berlusconi. Thus the government in Rome is immeasurably weakened even before it assumes office, as 25,000 votes out of 38 million cast determined the government’s fate. Turnout was an impressive 84 percent!
The apparent winner Prodi, a Eurocentric center left politico, remains the palatable front man for a coalition of socialists and shades of communists (reformed, renovated and still Red) who comprise an unwieldy coalition. Some say the only glue which held the Left together was opposition to Berlusconi. We shall see.
The same weekend, across the globe, Peru held elections. In the first round, a radical left wing army officer Ollanta Humala won 31 percent in a three way race. Now in the upcoming second round, the other two candidates Lourdes Flores a pro-American and free market advocate won 23.4 percent but was apparently edged out by former Peruvian president Alan Garcia who squeaked past her with 24.5 percent.
Sadly in Peru’s second ballot the choice appears as between Bad and Worse. In February a fraction of one percent separated the two contenders in Costa Rica’s presidential election. Here again the power of the individual ballot has grown out of all proportion.
In East Asia too I’m reminded that in Taiwan’s bitterly contested 2004 Presidential election the incumbent Chen Shui-bian won 50.11 percent while the opposition nationalist candidate Lien Chan garnered 49.89 percent. A wafer of 0.2 percent of the votes determined that Chen would remain in power in Taipei! Observers still cite a mysterious attempted assassination of Chen on the very eve of the vote which determined the hinge of political fate.
In Germany last autumn what was expected to be a certain win for Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) against the ruling Social Democrats (SPD)who were mired in scandal. Yet, the elections produced a political quagmire. When the vote was tallied, Merkel’s challengers were just painfully a few seats short in parliament thus leading to a lengthy and anxious shuffling of the political cards where small parties jockeyed for power in a surprising combination of coalitions.
Rather than face the political and economic instability resulting from the inconclusive outcome, both sides agreed to a Grand Coalition where the CDU and SPD now share power. Angela Merkel became Germany’s first woman Chancellor and the SPD however gained important Ministries including Foreign Affairs.
And so it goes. In Canada earlier this year Steven Harper’s Conservatives squeaked out a narrow win over the long ruling and corrupt Liberal government.
But there are exceptions to this left right divide; narrow mandates are not global.
Recently in Belarus, a Soviet-style theme park state, the President Alaksandr Lukashenko won a commanding 83 percent of the vote. His opposition was either cowed, arrested or beaten up and the retro-ruler seemed to feel that well, perhaps 99.6 percent of the vote would be a little too excessive, given that the European Union was watching. Being a dictator has its privileges.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com. |
