Iraq in context
UNITED NATIONS — The third anniversary of the Iraq War has produced the usual flurry of accusations, emotional arguments and the reflexive Bush bashing in the major media. The debate over Iraq has certainly demoralized many Americans and has more dangerously encouraged terrorists to keep up the pressure in Iraq. But as President George W. Bush conceded to a Washington press conference, the Iraq conflict is certainly eroding his political standing at home, and may I say overseas too.
President Bush embarked on a political road show to explain the conflict in Iraq and to bring a dose — not of giddy optimism — but much needed counter-balance to the debate. Nobody is denying that the terrorist blasts in Baghdad targeting mostly civilians or the sophistical bombs which kill American troops are a very real threat. The media dutifully reports this and thus beams a picture back to Americans of a market bomb, civil strife, or kidnappings. Focused carnage along with intimidation remains standard terrorist strategy. In other words create a frightful image so people don’t focus on the bigger picture. Thus while the particular image certainly has truth, the wider context becomes blurred in Iraq.
Secretary of State Condi Rice aptly described this “contradictory process” namely the mayhem amid the genuine reconstruction and progress. Rebuilding of roads, schools and health services has been downplayed instead often focusing on the fractious political debate inside Iraq’s government or sectarian violence among Iraqis.
The Administration understands that you can’t run a winning counter-insurgency strategy by domestic poll numbers alone but by dogged perseverance.
When the President opined that some American military forces (he did not give numbers)
would still be in Iraq until after his current term in office, the media again feigned shock. Just imagine we will now be there longer—we are already there three years!
While I earnestly hope that this year sees substantial U.S. troop reductions from Iraq, some units, a training and support element of perhaps 15,000 will stationed there for some time. The whole point is that newly trained Iraqi troops are now carrying a larger part of the security burden.
But wait, WWII ended sixty-one years ago and there are still large numbers of American troops in Germany and Japan. The Korean conflict ended fifty-three years ago and we still have 38,000 troops on the divided Korean peninsula.
No war, especially on the magnitude of the size and scope of Iraq is either a military cakewalk or a political certainty. Given the larger than California size of the country, or the intricate religious complexity among Muslims, and the entrenched hardcore Saddam loyalists and Islamic jihadi insurgents, there’s still a tough road ahead.
Many people somehow view modern war as a TV HBO series which probably will last a season at most, but you can always change the channel. Can’t figure out the myriad of political parties, complicated elections and complexities inside Islam, no worry, change the channel. Can Iraq after decades of ruthless dictatorship, emerge as a turn-key democracy where polite civil society replaces the corruption of the Saddam era? Better be prepared for the long run.
The Zarqawi and Al Qaida terrorist network plan is ruthlessly simple; use violent tactics to pressure political impatience thus forcing the multinational troops to retreat from Iraq. The USA would be despised as enfeebled and weak. Moderate Middle East governments would be in line for destabilization, and the jihadi extremists reveling in presumed victory, would be more likely to take the attack back to American shores.
Describing the struggle British Prime Minister Tony Blair said it best, “Victory for democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan is a vital element of defeating global terrorism. So here in its most pure form, is a struggle between democracy and violence.” In the larger context “This is not a clash between civilizations. It is a clash about civilization.”
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com. |
