Iran’s nuclear confidence game
UNITED NATIONS — A New Year’s surprise from the Islamic Republic of Iran! And guess what? They will be doing a little Research and Development on enriching uranium so that they may finally get to build that sought after Islamic Bomb. Teheran’s move clearly violates its formal agreement with the Europeans to suspend all uranium conversion and enrichment activities — namely the step by step process towards building a weapon of mass destruction.
Though the Bush Administration will be leading the political charge to take the matter to the UN Security Council, Secretary of State Condi Rice knows all too well that Russia (the enabler) and People’s China (the gas guzzler) are not going to let political pique over Iranian nuclear proliferation spoil cozy commercial relations. So given a likely veto from Moscow and Beijing on any meaningful resolution, forget the UN route.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) a Vienna based UN agency has been clearly jolted by Teheran’s announcement that it plans to resume “R&D on the peaceful nuclear energy program which has been suspended” IAEA Director Mohammed El Baradei called on Iran to take measures to build confidence and “to maintain its suspension of all enrichment related activities as a key confidence building measure.”
While El Baradei acknowledges Iran’s right “to the peaceful uses of nuclear technology,” he called on Teheran to take transparent steps to resolve suspicions regarding the nature of its nuclear development. The program was suspended in late 2004 due to strong U.S. and European pressures but last August, Iran broke the accord by resuming uranium conversion at Ifsahan .
Let’s face it…confidence building measures for the Islamic Republic of Iran are a confidence game of dangerous proportions. Even presuming an effective IAEA monitoring and verification program came into place, it would be shut down (a la Saddam Hussein) just as soon as inspectors were about to discover anything naughty. Then the whole game would return to inspections, thwarted inspections, and threats about allowing inspections. Sound familiar?
The Russians have created an Fundamentalist Frankenstein. The nuclear power technology is indisputably Russian. And while Moscow does not encourage an Islamic Bomb — they certainly serve as the enabler to a program which will certainly lead to nuclear proliferation and the strategic clout it brings.
Let’s be brutally blunt — given the film noir players in Teheran and their views, President Vladimir Putin should not assume for a Moscow minute that Iran does not consider Russia nearly as evil as America and Israel. And from a practical viewpoint Iran can deliver a nuclear warhead to neighboring Russia quite easily as political payback for the crimes against Muslims in Chechnya today or Afghanistan decades ago.
The Europeans — especially France, Germany and Great Britain are quite shocked and probably peeved at being snookered yet again by the Atomic Ayatollahs. And while Euroland certainly has reason to fear an Islamic Bomb, what do they plan to do about it?
Germany and France are major trading partners with the Islamic Republic (as it is communist China). Given Euroland’s petroleum dependence on Iran and the natural gas dependence on Russia, one sees a deftly executed political check mate against seriously effective action.
France’s Foreign Ministry called Teheran’s moves “very worrying” and stated, “We firmly call on Iran to revoke this announcement.”
Let’s realistically view the Islamic Republic — a regime filled with collective rage but happily hobbled by a bumbling incompetence which has turned a once prosperous petroleum producer into a place of mass unemployment, youth disenchantment, and entrenched social inequality. Given that Iran is getting richer from the price of oil, the Islamic Republic is also getting more arrogant.
There’s a bigger issue too. Iran’s radical President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has proven himself not as a political crackpot, but as a calculating madman who combines a crude form of hatred of Israel and the West with the political pornography of anti-Semitism and Holocaust denial. His views are not occasional nor out of context quotes, but a hateful parallel version of counter-history in which shock value somehow really lessens the effect. In other words, go beyond his revolting rants and realize that such fundamentalist dogma has become an entrenched view and policy position of a country of 70 million people who may soon have an atomic bomb.
Is Teheran’s mullah regime mad as a turbaned hatter, or does it play a deft game of diplomatic chicken knowing full well the glint of madness in its eyes is enough to dissuade an uncertain West?
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com. |
