Looking ahead: No world peace but it's 2007!
NEW YORK — With the last light of 2006 having faded, it’s time again to consult the crystal ball and see what’s on the horizon for our troubled world in the New Year. Here are a few of the issues which will dominate the headlines in 2007.
Terrorism — Though effective counter-terrorism has largely been successful during the past year, one can’t assume Islamic jihadists won’t hit again in the USA or Western Europe. Rationalizing the causes of extremism will not temper the white-heat hatreds of Al-Qaida terrorists towards the U.S., Canada and Europe.
Iraq — Clearly the USA is losing the political will to sustain military commitments in Iraq. This is not the fault of the U.S. military which has performed admirably but has been hampered with too many political constraints. The Democrat party controlled Congress will press for a quick solution which will sadly lead to a flawed outcome. It’s incumbent that the Iraqis learn to assume security functions themselves as the U.S. will begin a phase out. Still any precipitous American pullout will embolden the radicals, allow for wider Iranian influence, and ensure even wider Mid-East instability.
Nuclear Proliferation — The dual crises in both nuclear North Korea and soon to be nuclear Iran has jolted the global community into awareness and trepidation, but has paralyzed effective counter measures save for some economic sanctions on Pyongyang and Teheran.
Through the quaintly titled Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has few international allies and less global support, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il plays the role of a wild- eyed villain and gets plenty of “space.” China’s game is duplicitous. While working with regional powers such as Japan and U.S. to manage the Korean crisis, Beijing appears to also profit from the fact that its erstwhile comrades in Pyongyang threaten the status quo and thus preoccupy the attention of Washington, Tokyo and Seoul. At the same time, the People’s Republic of China has announced a fifteen percent jump in military spending.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is different. Teheran is a major petroleum producer and thus holds an energy card in dealing with much of Europe. While the West Europeans remain “deeply concerned” over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, such concerns and tepid sets of sanctions will not deter the atomic ayatollahs from single mindedly pursuing the bomb, nor Iran’s president unambiguously declaring that “Israel should be wiped off the map.”
Regional — Back to the Balkans! Kosovo, the overwhelmingly Albanian ethnic region of former Yugoslavia should finally attain its independence from Serbia. Though Russia has delayed the process, Moscow has little to gain from close ties to Belgrade, but will certainly use Kosovo’s status as a tradeoff for other issues. The Security Council must approve Kosovo’s future--this is not a done deal. Bulgaria and Romania have hit the jackpot and been admitted into the European Union.
The Palestinian territories, especially Gaza, remain a political tinderbox as ruling fundamentalist Hamas forces face off with the more “moderate” Fatah factions. Lebanon too, after the crisis of the past summer faces renewed pressures from Syrian backed elements trying to destabilize this small democracy.
Energy — The most dangerous development I believe is Vladmir Putin’s increasingly authoritarian Russia playing its energy cards with neighboring countries. Natural gas price hikes and cutoffs to Ukraine and Georgia have carried crudely implicit threats to places like Poland and Hungary. Given that West Europe has eagerly become dependent on available Russian energy, one has to question the political price of dependency?
Moscow’s mega-supplier Gazprom is set to become the second largest supplier of natural gas to France. Similar deals have been done with Italy and Germany. Already Gazprom supplies 98 percent to Slovakia, 80 percent to Hungary, 70 percent to the Czech Republic, and 60 percent to Poland. Plainly stated, Putin is using the energy pipeline arteries to Europe to weave a web of dependency, coercion and control.
The United States too has a dangerous dependence on foreign petroleum, not only from the Middle East. Events in Venezuela, a major oil exporter, raise red flags as the recently re-elected left wing regime of Hugo Chavez will inevitably clash with Washington.
Humanitarian — Unquestionably the continuing humanitarian crisis in Darfur merits both the most attention and indeed the most outrage. The Sudanese regime has continued to hinder and hamper humanitarian assistance to the troubled region. Over the past few years, a minimum of 225,000 civilians have died and a further two million people have been displaced. United Nations relief efforts have been effectively blocked by a Khartoum regime flush with oil money and secure in its political support from Beijing.
Efforts to expand upon a small and largely ineffective African Union peacekeeping force have been in checkmated in the UN Security Council where a callous combination of Arabs and the PRC continue to block a serious intervention force. Look for face-saving steps but Darfur appears doomed. Some people are too polite to use the word genocide.
Nevertheless despite all these cautions, I still say Happy New Year!
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