WASHINGTON — The U.S. Defense Department has raised the prospect
that Al Qaida's influence on the the Sunni insurgency in Iraq could intensify.
A Pentagon report warned that Al Qaida influence could grow in Iraq
should the central government in Baghdad fail to reconcile rival sectarian
groups, Middle East Newsline reported. The report, written before the U.S. assassination of Al Qaida
network chief Abu Mussib Al Zarqawi on July 7, said efforts to oppose Al
Qaida's influence have failed and that the movement dominates the
Sunni minority.
"Local Sunni Arab groups opposed to AQI [Al Qaida in Iraq] lack the
organization, money, training, and popular support to counter AQI
effectively," the report, entitled "Measuring Stability and Security in
Iraq," said.
In an assessment that contrasted with the optimistic tone of the Bush
administration, the Pentagon said Al Qaida and Saddam Hussein loyalists
continue to enjoy the support of Sunnis. The report said Sunni insurgency
leaders, despite deploring strikes against civilians, believe that
mass-casualty attacks facilitate their political and military goals.
"The Sunni Arab insurgents have effective and collaborative leadership,
resiliency, and links with the Sunni Arab political leadership," the report
said. "They also exploit Iraqi Sunni Arab fears, suspicions, and
dissatisfaction in order to gain support for insurgent violence, and create
these dynamics by attacking infrastructure and eliminating or threatening
friendly, cooperative Sunni Arabs."
The report outlined an organized Sunni insurgency that has withstood
Iraqi and U.S. operations. The Pentagon said Al Qaida and Saddam loyalists
have intimidated the Sunni minority in Iraq.
"Enemy elements remain resilient, capitalizing on established networks
to prevent capture and to conduct attacks against coalition and Iraqi
security forces as well as rival ethnosectarian
groups," the report said. "Relationships among insurgents, terrorists, and
criminal opportunists are blurred at times, although the ideological rifts
between terrorists and other resistance groups remain."
Al Qaida, which claimed responsibility for the bombing of a major
Shi'ite mosque in Samara in February, has failed to spark a civil war in
Iraq, the report said. But Al Qaida and Ansar Al Sunna continue to pose "the
most serious and immediate threat" in 2006.
"The insurgency depends on passive popular support, which, in turn,
allows insurgents to coerce other opponents into silence acceptance or
active assistance," the report said. "This situation feeds the cycle of
sectarian fears and violence and rationalizes the need for Shi'a to
defend the various ethnic or confessional groups."
The report said Sunnis have formed militias to protect against attacks
from Kurdish and Shi'ite fighters. They said these groups have grown in
areas where the central government failed to impose control.
"Although no large Sunni militia units have formed, in some
neighborhoods Sunnis are banding together to form their own security units
because of real or perceived Shi'a threats and mistrust of coalition and
Iraqi security forces," the report said. "They [including Shi'ite and
Kurdish militias]are likely to remain active in areas where Iraqi
institutions and forces are not yet adequate to meet the social and public
safety needs of the local population."
