HERZLIYA, Israel — Israel has begun preparing for the prospect that
Iraq would turn into an enemy.
Senior officials and analysts have been examining the results of the
December 2005 parliamentary elections in Iraq, in which the Shi'ite alliance
linked to Iran won the largest number of seats. They said Baghdad, under
eventual Iranian dominance, could resume its enmity toward Israel in wake of
a U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq.
"The Shi'ites in Iraq could be directed by Iran to restore Iraq as an
enemy of Israel," [Res.] Brig. Gen. Yaakov Amidror, a former military
intelligence commander, said on Monday.
On Jan. 22, Iraqi Shi'ite insurgency leader Muqtada Sadr pledged to
recruit his militia to fight alongside Iran in any conflict with a foreign
enemy. Sadr, head of the Iranian-backed Mahdi Army, spoke during a visit to
Teheran over the weekend.
"If neighboring Islamic countries, including Iran, become the target of
attacks, we will support them," Sadr was quoted by the official Iranian news
agency Irna as saying. "The Mahdi Army is beyond the Iraq Army. It was
established to defend Islam."
Amidror, a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs,
told the Herzliya Conference that Israel could expect a more hostile Middle
East in wake of the planned U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, meant to begin this
year. He envisioned a takeover of Iraq by Shi'ites aligned with Iran as well
as Sunni elements loyal to Saddam Hussein and Al Qaida.
"Anybody who builds strategy on the U.S. military presence [in Iraq]
will be surprised," Amidror said. "The situation in Iraq six months after
the U.S. withdrawal could be much different."
Former Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Moshe Ya'alon agreed that Iraq
could turn into a military rival of Israel. Ya'alon envisioned the flow of
thousands of Sunni fighters toward Israel and the Palestinian Authority
after a U.S. pullout from Iraq.
"Israel should prepare for a wave of terrorists that will be freed from
other fronts," Ya'alon said.
Government sources said the prospects of a Shi'ite takeover of most of
Iraq has become the subject of discussion within the military, Foreign
Ministry and intelligence community. They said the worst scenario would be
an Iranian attempt to use Iraq as a launching pad for attacks against
Israel.
"The conclusion," Tel Aviv University senior researcher Ofra Bengio
said, "is that while the recent elections are undoubtedly an important step
in efforts to institutionalize Iraqi democracy, the deeper processes of
liberalization, construction of civil society and national reconciliation,
so essential to sustainable democracy over the long term, have so far failed
to make much headway."
For his part, Ya'alon said Israel has become vulnerable to Arab and
Iranian missile strikes. He said Iran has been building missile arsenals in
Lebanon and in the Gaza Strip. Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip in
September 2005.
"Israel's unilateral withdrawals were perceived as escape from the
rocket threat," Ya'alon said. "Israel failed to create reliable deterrence
for the future."
