CAIRO — President Hosni Mubarak was expected to marginalize Egypt's
military in his attempt to transfer power to his son in 2007.
Imprisoned Egyptian opposition leader Ayman Nour, who ran for president
in 2005, said Mubarak plans to marginalize two of his most powerful aides
for succession — Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi and Intelligence Minister
Omar Suleiman, Middle East Newsline reported. Nour said Mubarak intends to dismiss Tantawi or Suleiman for
leadership on the pretext that they were not members of the central
committee of the ruling National Democratic Party.
"This means that the entire military establishment is out of the
equation," Nour said. "A solution to this is the appointment of a
vice-[president] or two with a military background."
As defense minister, Tantawi has been responsible for the military.
Suleiman heads the Egyptian intelligence community and has been a frequent
visitor to Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority.
For his part, Mubarak has refused to appoint a vice president, arguing
that this would exacerbate any power struggle. In an interview with the
Egyptian newspaper Al Massai on July 12, Mubarak, a former vice president,
suggested he would leave the post open.
"Our experience since the establishment of the republican system does
not call to maintain it," Mubarak said. "If anyone says that I was deputy to
President Sadat, well that happened
before we moved on the path of democracy. Frankly, I fear that this post
would lead to conflicts and mudslinging which obstruct national work."
In an article smuggled out of prison and posted on the opposition Al
Ghad website, Nour said he expects Mubarak to announce his resignation in
February 2007. Mubarak would tell Egyptians that he would institute a
four-month transition period and leave office in May 2007.
Under Nour's scenario, Mubarak would select three aides to help in the
transition period. They would comprise of Suleiman, Tantawi and Prime
Minister Ahmed Nazif.
"This pronouncement is a preparation for the following stage in the
process of the power transfer, [which will come] when [the number] of
candidates for the presidency shrinks [to include only] members of the
party's [Central] Committee," Nour, in remarks translated by the
Washington-based Middle East Media Research and Information, said. "This
will completely rule out the candidacies of Field Marshal Tantawi and Omar
Suleiman, who are the most well known."
Nour said the president's son Gamal began his race for president in
April 2006 by forcing out party rivals and installing his friends in key
positions in NDP. In January 2007, the junior Mubarak was expected to
propose an amendment to the constitution that would limit presidential
candidates to those who represent political parties with seats in
parliament.
The following month, Mubarak would announce his resignation and in March
Gamal was expected to become the NDP candidate for presidency. Elections
would be held in April 2007 and consist of Gamal against a minor candidate.
Egypt's military was expected to oppose the succession of Gamal, the
first Egyptian leader without a military background. But Nour said such
opposition could be overcome through the
support of the United States, which provides Cairo $1.3 billion a year in
military assistance.
"Gamal Mubarak is interested in first presenting himself to America and
knocking on its doors even before he knocks on the doors of his own
homeland, and [those of] its citizens," Nour said. "It is no secret that
Gamal maintains balanced relations with Israel."
