SEOUL — U.S. reconnaissance planes have sniffed out how close the North Koreans are coming to test-firing a Taepodong II missile, which could reach the west coast of the United States.
The success of U.S. spy flights off the east coast of North Korea, in the view of analysts here, explains why North Korea last weekend threatened to shoot down planes that intruded into its air space.
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An RC-135 surveillance aircraft takes off from an undisclosed airfield.
AFP/USAF
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The statement accused the United States of sending three RC-135 planes — fitted with an incredible array of electronic gear — over North Korean waters in what was called a “violent infringement of sovereignty and a grave violation of international law.”
The statement warned that the KPA Air Force “will sternly punish the aggressors if their planes continue illegally intruding into the sky” and carried a grim reminder of what it called “the wretched fate of the EC-121 large spy plane in the 1960s.” That reference recalled the shoot down on April 15, 1969, 90 miles off the North Korean east coast, of a U.S. Navy reconnaissance plane in which all 31 crew members were killed.
Analysts ascribed the unusually strong tone of the statement to the fact that the planes had been closely scrutinizing the northeastern coast in North Hamgyong Province, where North Korea has positioned the missile for launching.
While U.S. intelligence can study the site on the basis of satellite imagery, the RC-135s are capable of much more detailed observation and can also intercept message traffic that gives a more precise idea of North Korean planning, according to intelligence specialists here.
North Korea issued its warning after a series of statements by senior officials here, both on the record and for background, reflecting information provided by the United States about an imminent missile launch.
North Korea test fired the missile just once before, on August 31, 1998, when a Taepodong I flew over the main Japanese island of Honshu and landed in waters south of Vladivostok. North Korean media at the time said the launch was intended to place a satellite into orbit to broadcast songs of praise for the late ruler Kim Il-Sung. But Japanese were outraged by the ease with which the North fired a missile over Japanese territory.
North Korea this time is reportedly prepared to launch a missile capable of traveling much farther based on new technology and equipment reflecting the North’s success over the years in missile technology.
A senior official said North Korea has completed preparations for the missile, which would be launched into long-range flight with the aid of two other missiles for which the North has gained international notoriety.
The system relies first on a Nodong missile, the initial vehicle to be fired from the site. Then, a Scud would be fired from the Nodong and, finally, a rocket mounted on the Scud would complete the journey. Theoretically the rocket could travel several thousand miles. But, in actuality, it would be likely to travel a much shorter distance on its initial test flight.
The U.S. reconnaissance aircraft, homing in on the site and eavesdropping on conversations and other message traffic, have determined that the system is ready to go into operation with all pieces in place, said one analyst.
Analysts asked, though, whether North Korea is only appearing to launch the missile as a ruse to alarm the United States and compel Washington to ease up on retaliatory action taken in response to North Korea’s counterfeiting U.S. $100 currency and other violations.
U.S. officials suggested that a compromise might be possible after Banco Delta Asia in Macao had finished going over its books and unfrozen North Korea’s accounts. Banco Delta Asia cracked down on its longstanding relations with North Korea after the U.S. Treasury Department banned firms dealing with Banco Delta Asia from doing business with U.S. institutions.
The intelligence information gathered by the United States — including the latest material picked up by the RC -135 reconnaissance aircraft — set off alarm bells here. Foreign Minister Ban Ki-Moon urging North Korea not to test fire the missile, saying the launch was a matter of “the deepest concern” to his government.
A Foreign Ministry official, talking on background to Japan’s Kyodo news agency, said a launch would “negatively affect North-South relations, the stability of Northeast Asia and the six-nation talks over North Korea’s nuclear program.”
