WASHINGTON — The Bush administration has been drafting plans for a
withdrawal in 2006 that would not depend on Iraqi military capability or the
Sunni insurgency.
Administration sources said the plans reflected what they termed an
"exit strategy" outlined nearly a year ago. They said the strategy
envisioned the start of a steady reduction in U.S. forces in early 2006
following two Iraqi national elections, and before the U.S. congressional elections later in the year.
Nearly 50 American soldiers have been killed in
Iraq in less than three weeks, most of them by improvised explosive devices, Middle East Newsline reported.
"The strategy is based on a simple premise," an administration source
said. "We've been in Iraq going on three years and it's time to leave. After
the Iraqi elections, there is nothing more we can do for that country except
bleed for it."
Elements of the administration plan were leaked amid a spike in U.S.
military casualties in Iraq.
"By next summer we'll be getting ready for congressional elections in
the United States," [Ret.] U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Bill Nash, director of the
Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in a
radio interview. "So the administration is quite anxious, of course, to get
this problem, if you will, behind them and turn it over to the Iraqis."
The sources said U.S. Central Command has worked with the Defense
Department to draft a plan that would increase the U.S. military
presence from the current 138,000 to 160,000 troops by October, during the
referendum for an Iraqi constitution. The force would remain
to ensure the election in December for a new Iraqi National Assembly.
Pentagon spokesman Lawrence Di Rita pointed out that the U.S. military
presence in Iraq rose to about 160,000 for the first post-Saddam Hussein
election in January 2005. Di Rita said the U.S. troop level returned to
about 138,000 several weeks later.
"It's perfectly plausible to assume we'll do the same thing for this
election," said Di Rita, who said no decision has yet been made.
After the two elections, the United States plans to withdraw the lion's
share of troops from Iraq in 2006. By mid-2007, the sources said, no more
than 20,000 soldiers would remain in Iraq, limited to training and
mentoring Iraqi security forces, manning key bases with U.S. air assets, and
comprising a rapid response team meant to bolster Iraqi forces in case of
emergency.
Elements of the plan have been discussed with chairpersons of House and
Senate committees that oversee the military. The sources said the plan has
been generally welcomed amid an assessment that the Iraqi military and
security forces were increasing their counter-insurgency capability.
"There is a growing strong core of strength in the Iraqi military, that
it's standing and fighting, that it's doing its share of the load," House
Armed Services Committee chairman Rep. Duncan Hunter said.
The administration plan allows for flexibility in any withdrawal
schedule, leaving the decision to Central Command. Central Command has
drafted a series of options that envision a pullout amid either a decline in
the Sunni insurgency or an intensification of strikes against the Baghdad
government and U.S. coalition.
"The more restive parts are the more difficult parts, and one would
suppose that those would not be among the first places that get turned
over," forme Deputy Defense Undersecretary Douglas Feith told National
Public Radio.
The sources said the administration plan was based on the assessment
that the Sunni insurgency would last for years and that the biggest obstacle
to stability would be the corruption and inefficiency of Iraqi governments.
They said the near-term goal of the United States would be to
confine the insurgency to the Sunni Triangle while developing Kurdish,
Shi'ite and Sunni areas that cooperate with the Baghdad government.
"Our stress is to work with the Baghdad government to ensure the
operation and maintenance of military and security forces without our
hands-on supervision," an administration source said. "It's been as
challenging as our development of the Iraqi military itself."
