Mao's ghost rattles Katmandu

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Just as Chinese-Indian relations were reaching for new accommodations, events in the Himalayan Hindu kingdom of Nepal threaten the fragile peace along their long Tibetan border.

The long simmering crisis in Nepal, a piece of Britain’s India Empire which colonial history accidentally left an independent state, has exploded. King Gyanendra, commanding an ill equipped, ill trained 78,000-member army, has suspended civilian government. Gyanendra announced he would give his security forces more power to put down a decade-long guerrilla movement, self-proclaimed followers of Mao Zedong.

It throws a monekywrench into former Prime Minister Vajpayee’s 2003 bargain with Beijing: formally recognizing China’s Tibetan Autonomous Region in exchange for China’s accepting India’s annexation of the small Himalayan state of Sikkim. But that is only the beginning of settling their border which during the long history of British India was purposely left in neverneverland. It haunts Beijing-New Delhi relations in the new era of increased communications, especially after the Communists invaded Tibet in the late 1950s to wipe out its longstanding autonomy from nominal Chinese rule. That sent Tibet’s religious and temporal ruler, the Dalai Lama, into refuge in northern India where he set up a government in exile.

Vajpayee laid on a new set of border talks even though years of negotiation produced nothing after the short Himalayan war of 1964 which the Chinese won decisively. Vajpayee’s efforts were reinforced by growing Indian-Chinese trade as both dramatically move toward liberalized economies. There is even talk India’s new found prowess in information technology software is complementary to China’s growing skills in hardware [crowned by the recent proposed sale of IBM’s PC business to a Chinese government company].

But turmoil in Nepal puts all this at risk.

The situation has been critical since Gyanendra, 55, suddenly assumed the crown in 2001 after his brother, Birendra, was gunned down in a palace massacre apparently committed by King Birendra's son, the Crown Prince, who then allegedly committed suicide. Ten members of the royal family in all were killed. Riots shook Kathmandu, the capital, after which fighting intensified between Government forces and the rebels controling large parts of Nepal's countryside. The 10-15,000 Maoists make destruction of the semireligious Hindu monarchy [he is said to be a reincarnation of the god Shiva] a principle goal, use a combination of terror and exploitation of social issues from landlord oppression to discrimination against females. One of the world’s poorest countries, per capita income in 1988 for Nepal’s 30 million people was estimated at $158-180. More than 11,000 people have died since the Maoists broke out of a broad group of reformists which overthrew the former absolute monarchy in 1990.

Strange as it may seem to a world long since turning its back on Soviet systems and the failed Mao experiments, the Nepalese Maoists are sophisticated Marxists – for example, studying what went wrong with the once successful Peru’s Sendero Luminoso [Shining Path]. Through extended off and on negotiations they have refused the Government's invitation to come into the Nepalese mainstream [which includes above ground sympathetic Communist parties and a student following].

The Nepalese Maoists reject current Chinese leadership as unacceptable compromisers with Mao’s original true faith. Beijing, equally, has denounced them and recently made a great fuss over arresting Nepalese arms smugglers operating in Tibet. The Chinese have extended extensive aid to Nepal, now preparing to build a second highway into the country connecting with a vast network of roads along the Indian Himalayan periphery building since the 1950s. The Indians have not matched Chinese construction in their border areas, including northeast India with a half-dozen local insurrections, and would incur many of their 1964 disadvantages were fighting to break out. They also have a continuing Pakistan-supported insurrection in Kashmir, abutting the border.

There is an assumption among many Indians a Maoist victory – or continuing chaos – might very well result in Chinese intervention. Also the Maoists have close ties to guerrilla political movements in India in what some call a “red belt” extending north to south through the heart of the subcontinent ending with what Indian officials know to be a nexus with the Tamil Tigers [ITTE], a guerrilla movement seeking an independent Tamil state in Sri Lanka and among India’s own 65 million Tamils in the southern state of Tamilnadu.

Both India and, to a limited extent, the U.S., have lent military aid to Nepal. And Prachanda, the charismatic leader of the Nepal Maoists told a Latin American Maoist journalist: "Ultimately, we will have to fight the Indian army.…When the Indian army comes in with thousands and thousands of soldiers, it will be a very big thing. But we are not afraid of the Indian Army." Whatever happens, New Delhi cannot look on the situation with equanimity. If Gyanendra succeeds in cracking the Maoists, India could face an influx of guerrillas. But if Nepal cannot act effectively to contain the insurrection, in the long run, the “compact revolutionary zone” of Maoists could widen to include areas in India.