WorldTribune.com: John Metzler: 2006: Year in preview

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By John Metzler SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

BENNINGTON, Vermont — Tis the Season to once again make some predictions, prognostications and good guesses for the foreign policy horizon in 2006. While unexpected events still have a way of surprising any aspiring seer, as did last year’s tragic Indian Ocean Tsunami, there are still some definite trends which point to the road ahead.

The past year has witnessed genuine political and military progress in Iraq. Three major elections, with widespread voter turnout, clearly illustrate that Iraqis want to participate in the their new political system. Yes there’s a plethora of parties and vocal factions but that’s what a young democracy is all about. Freedom can be quick but democracy takes time. Major thanks and kudos here to the U.S. military (including the overstretched and overlooked National Guard units)who served as the political midwife to Iraq’s democracy.

On the security front we have turned the corner and are able to begin American troop reductions as the situation warrants. The insurgents certainly can and will continue to keep the security situation simmering but the balance of Iraqi civilian sympathies have tilted against the terrorists. Also, expect some of Saddam’s chemical and biological weapons to be uncovered — as I have said probably right under our noses.

Though Islamic jihadi terrorists carried out some grisly attacks in London and Amman, Jordan, the world has been safer. Vigilance and good policing have paid off especially in Britain and the U.S. Radical Islamic networks are well entrenched in Europe (France and Belgium) and in the U.S. Don’t count the terror networks out. Moreover the bitter partisan political debate in America over domestic security issues can weaken our resolve and focus allowing for a costly but preventable slip up.

Big political changes in Europe — Germany elected a conservative government which certainly wants to revitalize the once close ties with the USA. While Chancellor Angela Merkel won’t be sending troops to Iraq, neither will Berlin be blocking American initiatives. Importantly Poland swung to the right with a new government which has already extended the mandate for its military units serving in Iraq’s multinational forces. Though many European governments and their citizens are still captivated by feelings of fashionable anti-Americanism, the political weathervane has moved. Austria will hold the EU Presidency which will be generally positive for the U.S.

Two new Balkan microstates are on the horizon. The former Yugoslav province of Kosovo with its overwhelmingly ethnic Albanian majority is set to gain self- determination. The UN has set the process which will see a vote on future status — clearly a new country. Yugoslav-Montenegro will likely opt for freedom too. Mind you the Serbs must sign off on both these deals--Belgrade despite emotional/ nationalist reservations, probably won’t go into Milosevic mode to hold on to them the old fashioned way.

Given that the Beijing Olympics are just two and a half years away, it’s less likely that the People’s Republic will be overtly threatening to Taiwan. Rather China will bask in its economic glory and gee whiz statistics (despite some very falsified numbers). Watch rumblings of discontent in the Mainland’s restive rural regions. Japan and the U.S are rightfully concerned about nuclear North Korea but the real wild card is the political ambivalence in South Korea over how to deal with the communist North. Political Seoul-searching has stymied American policy over this ticking time bomb on the still divided Korean peninsula.

There’s an unmistakable political drift to the left in Latin America. Even beyond the big countries such as Brazil and Argentina, Chile will likely see the victory of a leftwing candidate as did Bolivia weeks ago. Watch Costa Rica and Nicaragua where the left appears in ascendancy. The real danger rests in Venezuela where a radical Castro-wannabe Hugo Chavez continues to slide down the slippery slope of hard line socialism and knee jerk opposition to the USA. Chavez has convincingly established his credentials as a buffo thug and regional role model.

And these are just a few of the challenges confronting policymakers. Happy New Year!