The Road to Damascus: How far, how fast?
UNITED NATIONS — In the political jockeying which followed release of the UN ‘s stinging investigation into Syrian involvement in the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the diplomatic spinmeisters are busily setting the stage for the final report which could rock the core of the regime of President Bashir Al-Assad. Now all parties are posturing for a showdown in the UN Security Council—likely next week.
That Syria has stonewalled the UN investigation should come as no surprise; the Damascus regime has long viewed neighboring Lebanon as a political fiefdom and a playground for illegal activities. During its 30 year long military occupation of Lebanon, Syria set up a web of intelligence networks and profitable rackets which have been disrupted. The occupation ended only this year due to strong American and French political pressures through a UN Security Council resolution.
That resolution #1559 called not only for the Syrian army’s pullout but the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Lebanon and the disarming of the militias. This hornets nest of militias are variously supported by Syria and Islamic Iran. Needless to say they can be manipulated by a cornered Assad regime to destabilize Israel or Lebanon itself.
In a meticously prepared and delivered investigation, German Prosecutor Detlev Mehlis and his UN team, has uncovered serious evidence that the Syrian security operatives were directly involved in the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre in Beirut which killed the popular Prime Minister and 21 others in Beirut.
While Mehlis told UN correspondents that “The assassination was organized by Syrian and Lebanese security officials,” he hesitated to name names, adding “we need more substantial cooperation from the Syrian side.”
President Gorge W. Bush described the charges as “deeply disturbing.”
American Ambassador to the UN John Bolton warned, “This is true confessions time for the government of Syria. No more obstruction, no more half measures. We want substantive cooperation, and we want it immediately.”
Now the USA, France and Britain are pressing for a Security Council resolution which will force Syria to cooperate—or else face economic sanctions. Such sanctions would harm the already fragile Syrian economy with 20 unemployment and a dearth of foreign investment. But while France, the USA and Britain encourages Syrian coming clean or face an embargo, such a resolution is opposed by Russia, the Arab League and Communist China.
Putting the Syrian regime and the Assad family into political checkmate may not be as simple as many assume. Syria has long been a military client state of the former Soviet Union and indeed Russia. Moscow clearly states it shall use its Security Council veto to say Nyet to stop any American sanctions initiative against Damascus. Russia may settle for a lukewarm resolution but nothing which will really threaten the Assad regime’s grip on power.
Syria and the Islamic Republic of Iran equally share strategic interests. Syria has been a conduit for foreign fighters and weapons into neighboring Iraq to fight the U.S. troops especially in Anbar province. A separate UN report warns that Syria has permitted an “increasing influx of weaponry and personnel” to Palestinian radicals in southern Lebanon to attack Israel, among them Shiite militias and terrorist movements such as Hezbollah.
As pressures build on the Syrian regime, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad, openly threatens that Israel “must be wiped off the map.” This statement of reckless venom, besides underscoring the dangers of a nuclear armed Iran, equally illustrates the linkage that pressuring Damascus may trigger unexpected regional consequences. In other words, push Syria too much and reap a new wave of violence in Israel, Iraq, and Lebanon.
In Lebanon itself, despite a democratic revival, how far will the Beirut government really want to go to uncover ghosts of the past and should we say its own former relationships with the Syrian big brothers?
So it’s up to Syria to fully cooperate with the Mehlis commission or face escalating consequences. The wider issue emerges, how far and how fast the U.S. and France are willing to go to along the road to Damascus—and at what price?
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.  |
