The Saudi kingdom could augment or replace strategic ties with London and Washington by
increasing relations with France, the Washington Institute said in a report. The institute cited a French report of a
defense memorandum of understanding that paves the way for the French
sale of up to $15 billion in aircraft and security projects to Riyad.
The institute's report, authored by Gulf analyst Simon Henderson, was
issued on the eve of the meeting between U.S. President George Bush and
Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz in Crawford, Texas on Monday.
Abdullah and Bush last met three years ago. The president has indicated
that he would press Abdullah to increase Saudi oil exports as prices
approach $60 a barrel, Middle East Newsline reported.
Abdullah, who met Vice President Richard Cheney on Sunday, was expected to
face a tough session with Bush.
"If recent signals from the Saudis are any indication, the talks could
be tough," the study said. "Indeed, the frank talk promised for the Crawford
summit could well mark a turning point in U.S.-Saudi relations."
"The president [Bush] has a plethora of concerns heading into the
meeting, including Saudi views on terrorism, democratic reform, oil prices,
and nuclear proliferation," the study added. "Although Washington is pleased
by recent Saudi successes against Al Qaida, it remains worried about the
potential for Islamic militancy in the kingdom. U.S. nationals in Saudi
Arabia remain vulnerable to terrorist attacks."
Henderson cited Abdullah's criticism of Bush and praise for French
President Jacques Chirac, whom the crown prince met about a week ago in
Paris. Abdullah has highlighted disagreement with the United States on such
issues as the war in Iraq, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Washington's
plans to encourage democracy in the Middle East.
"The contrast between the Crawford and Paris meetings is likely to be
great, leading to speculation that Riyad might upgrade its relations with
France to a strategic friendship rivaling its historic relationship with the
United States," the study said.
The study cited a report that the Saudis had conditionally agreed to
purchase 96 French Rafale combat aircraft as well as a C4I system. France is
already a major supplier to the Saudi naval and air defense forces.
"It should be noted that adding aircraft to the relationship would come
at the expense of Britain, whose once-lucrative Al Yamamah contract has been
in place for nearly 20 years," the study said.
Henderson said Saudi Arabia could sideline Britain as a major arms
supplier. He said the switch from Britain to France would mark a Saudi
protest for Britain's refusal to expel opposition leader Saad Al Faqih.
Henderson said the central and perhaps most sensitive U.S. concern is
the future Saudi leadership. King Fahd, who no longer functions, is 84 years
old. Abdullah is 82, while Defense Minister Prince Sultan is 81 and Interior
Minister Prince Nayef is 72.
"Current and former senior U.S. officials make little secret of their
hope that neither Defense Minister Prince Sultan nor Interior Minister
Prince Nayef become king as present succession rules dictate, preferring a
younger monarch with a more modern outlook," the study said. "The U.S.
ability to influence succession is limited at best, while the opportunity
for misunderstandings is immense."
