RAMALLAH — The Palestinian Authority is adrift, stymied by a generation gap and foreign-backed terrorist organizations.
Officials said the assessment of many in
the PA leadership is that the authority could collapse by late 2005 as the
split within the ruling Fatah movement widens, Middle East Newsline reported.
"The Fatah is split between the young guard who wants to take over now
and the old guard who wants to remain at all costs," a PA official said.
"Whatever happens, the fate of Fatah is linked to the PA."
Officials said PA security services have been unable to stem the
increasing violence in the streets of Palestinian cities in the West Bank
and Gaza Strip. They said Fatah factions have been engaged in gun battles in
Ramallah, the center of Palestinian government, while police largely stood
by.
On Tuesday, PA Prime Minister Ahmed Qurie warned that he would suspend
the Cabinet unless the security forces were ordered to halt the chaos in the
West Bank and Gaza Strip. Qurei also cited the violence in Ramallah.
"If this security chaos does not end, we will suspend our duties," Qurei
said on Tuesday. "We are telling the heads of security services that there
should be severe deterrence for all those who are tampering with security."
Over the last two weeks, Fatah's old guard appeared to have succeeded in
postponing a congress scheduled for August 2005 to elect a new leadership.
The move has angered young Fatah challengers, and PA officials predict the
splintering of the movement into armed factions, with each competing for
control of areas in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. They said many of these
factions would be supported by foreign elements.
"In truth, this thing poses a strategic threat to the steadfastness of
the Palestinians," Palestinian Legislative Council member Jamal Shubaki
said. "It poses an internal threat upon the Palestinian stronghold, which
remained firm in the face of all recent confrontations."
Officials said PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has sought to maintain a
semblance of order in an effort to ensure the Israeli withdrawal from the
Gaza Strip and northern West Bank in August. But they said Abbas has lost
control of the Fatah movement, particularly the 21-member Fatah Central
Committee. Abbas, they said, could count on the support of two Central
Committee members.
"PA and Fatah people have never been so scared as they are now," an
official said. "There is a stream of people going to Amman and sending
their families and money there."
The most immediate threat to Abbas and the PA comes from the
Fatah-controlled Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. Officials said Al Aqsa operatives
have sought to align themselves with Abbas's rivals in Fatah in preparation
for a coup.
Abbas's leading rival has been Fatah chief Farouq Khaddoumy, backed by
the movement's old guard. Fatah leaders have pressed for Khaddoumy's
appointment to PA vice chairman, which would allow him to succeed Abbas.
At the same time, Fatah operatives have formed alliances with PA
security commanders. Officials said the commanders have sought to form
private militias to prevent their dismissal by Abbas or Interior Minister
Nasser Yusef.
"The idea is that Al Aqsa will shoot at Abu Mazen [Abbas] if these
commanders are dismissed," a Fatah source said.
Officials said several dismissed PA commanders have already fled the
West Bank to avoid retaliation by the families of those killed or detained
by security forces. They said the commanders had also feared that they would
be jailed on corruption charges.
In early June, PA Military Intelligence units attacked PA officials to
protest the dismissal of commander Brig. Gen. Mussa Arafat. The units
stormed the home of the governor of Nablus and abducted a PA diplomat in the
Gaza Strip.
Officials said Yusef agreed to shelve plans to absorb military
intelligence in the PA National Security Force. Arafat's command, however,
was not restored.