Israel has relayed its concern to the United States of
the rising prospect of a Middle East war in 2006.
U.S. officials said Israel has determined that the expected U.S.
withdrawal from Iraq in 2006 would raise tensions in the region that could
lead to a Middle East war. The officials said the Israeli assessment
asserted that Iran would either lead or play a
major role in any future war against the Jewish state.
"It is the biggest nightmare of [Prime Minister] Ariel Sharon," a U.S.
official said. "He has relayed repeated messages to the administration that
Iran and its Arab allies were preparing for war."
Officials said Sharon has raised this issue with President George Bush,
Vice President Richard Cheney and leaders of the U.S. intelligence
community. They said Sharon and Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz have assessed
that an Iran emboldened with nuclear weapons and intermediate-range missiles
was seeking to form a coalition against Israel for a war that could take
place after a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.
Sharon discussed Iran's nuclear weapons program during his visit to the
United States last week. Officials said the prime minister, equipped with
satellite photos, told Bush and Cheney that Iran has nearly reached the
point of indigenous nuclear weapons capability. He said Iran still had
several technical obstacles to overcome.
"Once they will solve it, that will be the point of no return," Sharon
said in a U.S. television interview.
So far, the Bush administration has not supported Sharon's urging for an
immediate response to Iran's nuclear weapons program. Officials said the
administration has been supporting European Union diplomatic efforts for a
permanent halt in Iranian uranium enrichment. They said the administration
was prepared to give the EU until the end of 2005 to achieve its aim.
"We all have a shared concern and a shared goal, our shared goal is to
make sure Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon," White House press
secretary Scott McClellan said. "That would be a very destabilizing factor
in the region. We continue to support those [EU] diplomatic efforts to
resolve this in a peaceful manner."
Israel has told the United States that Iran was developing nuclear
warheads for ballistic and cruise missiles. Officials said Israel assessed
that Iran would have indigenous nuclear capability by 2006.
Sharon was also said to have urged Bush for military support to ensure
that Israel would receive the supplies and weapons required to deter or
fight any Middle East war in wake of the unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza
Strip and northern West Bank. Officials said the prime minister asserted
that Iran was encouraging Palestinian insurgency groups and Hizbullah to
increase tensions along the southern and northern Israeli borders.
But officials said most of the U.S. intelligence community does not share
the Israeli assessment of either an imminent Iranian nuclear threat or the
prospect of a regional war in 2006. They said U.S. intelligence does not
envision an Iranian nuclear bomb until at least 2010.
"Our intelligence community has used in the past an estimate that said
that Iran was not likely to acquire a nuclear weapon before the beginning of
the next decade," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said on April
13. "That remains the case."
The U.S. priority in the Middle East, officials said, was for Israel's
withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank as well as the
establishment of a Palestinian state. During his meeting with Sharon,
officials said, Bush asserted that the establishment of a Palestinian
democracy would result in regional stability.
"If you resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue, you've resolved the
problem with extremism," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said. "You
will not have resolved the problem with extremism. The only way that the
problem with extremism gets resolved is if there is a competing ideology
that is one based on freedom and liberty and tolerance."
Officials said Bush also urged Sharon to end Israeli construction in the
West Bank, saying this would torpedo U.S. efforts to encourage democracy in
the Middle East. On Monday, the administration opposed Israeli plans to
construct 50 housing units in the West Bank community of Elkanah.
"We will be seeking clarification from the government of Israel,"
McClellan said. "I think the president made his views very clear last week,
as well, that Israel should not expand settlements."
On Tuesday, Assistant Secretary of State David Welch and Deputy National
Security Advisor Elliott Abrams arrive in Israel to meet Sharon. Officials
said the two U.S. envoys plan to focus their talks on the Israeli withdrawal
as well as steps to help Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.
Officials said they were monitoring reports from Israel that Sharon was
likely to delay the withdrawal by at least three weeks.
"We think that withdrawal from Gaza and the four settlements on the West
Bank creates an opportunity for all," Boucher said. "We need to work hard to
prepare for that."
