TEL AVIV — Israel's military is bracing for the increasing
prospect of a war with Syria in a confrontation expected to include Iran and
Hizbullah.
The General Staff has discussed an assessment by the military's Northern
Command of an emerging threat from Syria and Hizbullah over the next year.
The Northern Command said a weakened Syria, under pressure from the United
States to withdraw from Lebanon, was likely to approve an Iranian-Hizbullah
campaign against Israel, Middle East Newsline reported.
"We might have to fight those countries, which could drive them back a
dozen years," Maj. Gen. Benny Gantz, chief of Northern Command, said. "We
can drive Lebanon and Syria 50 years back. It's an option."
Gantz told the Low-Intensity Conflict warfare counter-terrorism [LIC-2005] conference
on Wednesday that Hizbullah — backed
by Iran and Syria — has become a strategic threat to Israel. He cited the
15,000 missiles and rockets deployed by Hizbullah along the Lebanese border
with Israel and the Shi'ite organization's increasing support of Palestinian
insurgency cells in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
"Hizbullah is behind many of the operations in Israel and one day
something will have to be done," Gantz said.
Military sources said Gantz's warning was the latest by several senior
officers who envision a major war with Syria by 2007. The sources said Iran
and Syria have used Hizbullah to weaken Israel strategically and erode its
morale. The sources said the General Staff has not discussed an Israeli
strike on Iran.
Hizbullah has been regarded as the leading supporter of the Palestinian
war against Israel, which began in 2000. The Shi'ite insurgency group has
also infiltrated the Israeli Arab community and recruited citizens for
intelligence and other operations.
So far, the government of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has resisted the
military's urging for a major operation against Hizbullah to reduce its
threat to the Jewish state. The sources said Sharon does not want a
confrontation with Syria as he seeks to end the Palestinian war and withdraw
from the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank.
Hizbullah has been bracing for an Israeli air or ground assault on its
positions in Lebanon. The sources said Hizbullah has built tunnels and
hideouts filled with explosives in an effort to slow down any Israeli ground
invasion.
At the same time, Hizbullah has obtained medium-range rockets. They
include 220 mm rockets from Syria, with a range of 75 kilometers, as well as
the 240 mm Fajr-3, with a range of 43 kilometers.
For his part, Gantz did not envision a conventional Syrian attack on
Israel, rather a scenario whereby Iran or Damascus would use Hizbullah for a
proxy war. The general said Hizbullah became a strategic threat even before
Israel withdrew unilaterally from Lebanon in 2000.
"Hizbullah was already a strategic threat [in 2000]," Gantz said. "The
only thing that changed was that Hizbullah got closer and that because of
[Syrian President Assad] Bashar, Hizbullah got stronger. It [Israel's
withdrawal] was a social and political decision and not necessarily a
strategic decision."
