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Crisis Group: Gaza withdrawal could lead to disaster

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Thursday, July 28, 2005

LONDON — Israel's unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank could trigger unrest that would be difficult to bring under control, a new report warns.

The Brussels-based International Crisis Group said Israel's withdrawal could spark a wave of violence in both the Jewish state and the Palestinian Authority. The ICG said neither Israel nor the PA might be capable of quelling the unrest.

"If the withdrawal does not take place properly and as scheduled and if it is marred by resistance by the settlers or Palestinian gunmen, the chances of peace will dwindle tremendously," the ICG said in a report released in early July. "The forthcoming disengagement is unprecedented, as is the intensity of domestic opposition to it."

The statement cited the lack of coordination between Israel and the PA in the withdrawal, scheduled to begin Aug. 17. The ICG also pointed to the PA's failure to prevent insurgency groups from attacking Israeli civilian and military targets in the Gaza Strip.

"In view of high risks to have settlers and militants hinder the pullout, both Israel and the Palestinian Authority are requested to increase control on their people," ICG said.

The organization did not envision major resistance by the 10,000 Israeli residents slated for eviction from the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank. ICG determined that the majority of these Israelis were moderate.

The report said the anti-withdrawal forces remain disorganized. But the group said resistance could bolster the prospect of violence during the pullout.

"The efforts to create a national trauma seem to have some momentum: even some Gaza settlers who earlier opposed active resistance appear to be hardening their positions and contemplating heightened activism," the report said.

"For example, rather than sending their children out earlier and simply waiting in their homes to be evacuated, many are now planning to keep their children with them and lock their houses, thereby compelling soldiers to carry out a far more dramatic forced entry."

The report said the Israeli and Palestinian leaderships have been ambivalent regarding the withdrawal. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was said to fear that an excessively smooth withdrawal would amplify demands for additional teritorial concessions. The Palestinians were said to be concerned that Israel would oppose additional withdrawals from the West Bank.

"This puts the international community in a delicate but critical posture," the report said. "For now, it should have only one priority: ensuring that the disengagement is complete and is followed by a credible political process leading to far more substantive territorial withdrawals and settlement evacuation, an end to the armed confrontation and the reining in of militant Palestinian groups."


Copyright © 2005 East West Services, Inc.

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