LONDON — Israel's unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and
northern West Bank could trigger unrest that would be difficult to bring under control, a new report warns.
The Brussels-based International Crisis Group said Israel's
withdrawal could spark a wave of violence in both the
Jewish state and the Palestinian Authority. The ICG said neither Israel nor
the PA might be capable of quelling the unrest.
"If the withdrawal does not take place properly and as scheduled and if
it is marred by resistance by the settlers or Palestinian gunmen, the
chances of peace will dwindle tremendously," the ICG said in a report
released in early July. "The forthcoming disengagement is unprecedented, as
is the intensity of domestic opposition to it."
The statement cited the lack of coordination between Israel and the PA
in the withdrawal, scheduled to begin Aug. 17. The ICG also pointed to the
PA's failure to prevent insurgency groups from attacking Israeli civilian
and military targets in the Gaza Strip.
"In view of high risks to have settlers and militants hinder the
pullout, both Israel and the Palestinian Authority are requested to increase
control on their people," ICG said.
The organization did not envision major resistance by the 10,000 Israeli
residents slated for eviction from the Gaza Strip and the northern West
Bank. ICG determined that the majority of these Israelis were moderate.
The report said the anti-withdrawal forces remain disorganized. But the
group said resistance could bolster the prospect of violence during the
pullout.
"The efforts to create a national trauma seem to have some momentum:
even some Gaza settlers who earlier opposed active resistance appear to be
hardening their positions and contemplating heightened activism," the report
said.
"For example, rather than sending their children out earlier and
simply waiting in their homes to be evacuated, many are now planning to keep
their children with them and lock their houses, thereby compelling soldiers
to carry out a far more dramatic forced entry."
The report said the Israeli and Palestinian leaderships have been
ambivalent regarding the withdrawal. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was said to
fear that an excessively smooth withdrawal would amplify demands for
additional teritorial concessions. The Palestinians were said to be
concerned that Israel would oppose additional withdrawals from the
West Bank.
"This puts the international community in a delicate but critical
posture," the report said. "For now, it should have only one priority:
ensuring that the disengagement is complete and is followed by a credible
political process leading to far more substantive territorial withdrawals
and settlement evacuation, an end to the armed confrontation and the reining
in of militant Palestinian groups."