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Syria's Assad still plans to talk missiles in Moscow

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Thursday, January 13, 2005

MOSCOW — Syrian President Bashar Assad will travel here later this month to finalize what would be the biggest Syrian arms deal in 20 years.

The United States has warned Russia against the sale, and the trip has also set off a crisis in Israel.

Russian officials said Assad plans to discuss the purchase of Russian long-range rockets, long- and short-range anti-aircraft systems, anti-tank missiles and other weapons during his visit to Russia. Asad was scheduled to arrive in St. Petersburg on Jan. 24 for a four-day visit in what officials said would focus on defense and military cooperation between Russia and Syria, Middle East Newsline reported.

President Vladimir Putin has approved the sale of several of the systems requested by Syria, officials said. They include the export of the Iskander-E mobile long-range rocket, also called the SS-26 missile, and the SA-18 surface-to-air missile. Both systems have been developed by KBM Instruments, based in Tula.

The United States this week warned Russia against selling missiles to Syria, but Russia denied planning such a sale.

Officials said Damascus and Moscow have already signed a preliminary agreement for Syrian procurement of the SA-18, with a range of 5.2 kilometers and altitude of 3.5 kilometers. They said that during his visit Assad was expected to sign a contract for the SA-18, sought by Damascus since at least 2002.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, who held talks in Washington on Wednesday, did not rule out an SA-18 sale to Syria. But he stressed that Moscow does not plan to sell the Iskander-E to Damascus, and said this was not raised by the United States.

The reported approval by Putin of the SA-18 and Iskander-E to Syria has sparked a crisis with Israel. Officials acknowledge that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has recalled his ambassador from Moscow and refused to see Russian officials until the proposed contracts with Syria were suspended.

Israel has reserved its biggest objections to Russia's plans to sell Syria the shoulder-fired SA-18, officials said. They said Israel has argued that Syria -- with much larger mobile anti-aircraft batteries -- does require the SA-18 and could transfer the system to the Iranian-sponsored Hizbullah in Lebanon. Officials said Iran was believed to be financing the SA-18 purchase.

On Jan. 11, Russia and the United States agreed to increase export controls on man-portable surface-to-air missiles, known as MANPADS, including the SA-18. The following day, the United States called on Russia to block the sale of anti-aircraft missiles to Syria.

The reported approval by Putin of the SA-18 and Iskander-E to Syria has sparked a crisis with Israel. Officials acknowledge that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has recalled his ambassador from Moscow and refused to see Russian officials until the proposed contracts with Syria were suspended.

Israel has reserved its biggest objections to Russia's plans to sell Syria the shoulder-fired SA-18, officials said. They said Israel has argued that Syria -- with much larger mobile anti-aircraft batteries -- does require the SA-18 and could transfer the system to the Iranian-sponsored Hizbullah in Lebanon. Officials said Iran was believed to be financing the SA-18 purchase.

On Jan. 11, Russia and the United States agreed to increase export controls on man-portable surface-to-air missiles, known as MANPADS, including the SA-18. The following day, the United States called on Russia to block the sale of anti-aircraft missiles to Syria.

In 2004, Russia reported a record export year of about $5.7 billion, with China and India deemed the leading defense clients of Moscow. Still, as late as two weeks ago, officials discounted the prospect of a major Russian arms deal in the Middle East during 2005.

Syria owes $11 billion to the former Soviet Union, a debt that the Assad regime has refused to pay to Moscow. But the officials said Putin has enabled Syria to buy weapons for cash in an effort to restore Russian influence in the Arab world in wake of the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq.

"We have no talks with Syria about such [Iskander] missiles," Ivanov said. "There are no negotiations under way with Syria. We are already used to having such information pop up before visits to Russia by Mideast leaders."

Neither Russia's state-owned arms export agency Rosoboronexport nor the Foreign Ministry confirmed plans to sell military systems to Syria. But the ministry said Moscow maintained the right to trade with countries such as Syria, which has not been under United Nations embargo.

"In our export policy we give special attention to prevention of sensitive arms getting into the hands of international terrorists, and the Israeli leadership knows this," the statement said.

"We're against the sale of lethal military equipment to Syria, which is a state sponsor of terrorism," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said. "The Russians know about this policy. They know about our views."

Syria has also been negotiating for the Iskander-E, regarded as the most advanced tactical rocket in Russia's arsenal, with a circle error of probability of between 10 and 20 meters. The Iskander-E's launcher carries two rockets that could be fired simultaneously in different trajectories in a design meant to foil such missile defense systems as Israel's Arrow-2 and the U.S.-origin Patriot. Each rocket has a range 280 kilometers and a warhead that weighs 480-kilograms. The system was meant to be operated by a three-man crew.

"Israel is extremely concerned that if the Iskanders are deployed, for example, near the demarcation line in the Golan Heights area, virtually all of Israel will be within the missiles range," the Moscow-based Kommersant newspaper said. "They would be able to hit targets in Israel with the accuracy range of 20 meters."

Officials said they did not expect Assad to sign a contract for the Iskander-E during his forthcoming visit. They said Syria first expressed interest in the solid-fuel Iskander-E in 2002, but the system was still in development. In August 2004, Russia completed tests of the single-stage guided Iskander-E and two months later resumed negotiations with Damascus. Rosoboronexport plans to launch a major export promotion of the Iskander-E in 2005. Officials said the export model would only contain one rocket per launcher.

The Assad regime has also examined a range of other Russian systems, officials said. They cited the S-300PMU-2 long-range anti-aircraft system, the shorter-range TOR-M1 as well as the Kornet-E and Metis-M anti-tank weapons systems. In 2002, Syria bought the Kornet-E and Metis-M and several of the systems were transferred to the Saddam regime on the eve of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

Russian officials said the Putin administration appeared intent on completing the SA-18 sale with Syria in both an effort to promote foreign policy as well as help Russia's defense industry. They said Moscow has already suspended major arms deals with Iran amid U.S. pressure. In 2001, Iran and Russia signed a defense agreement estimated at $7 billion. Over the last day, Moscow has sent a series of messages to Israel regarding the proposed SA-18 deal. Officials said the messages included assurances that the anti-aircraft systems would remain in Syria under control of its military.

But Russian analysts doubted that Moscow would sell either the Iskander or S-300 to Syria. They said the United States would not allow Russia to sell advanced weapons to Syria that could be transferred to Sunni insurgents in neighboring Iraq.

"It is hard to imagine that [Rosboronexport director-general Viktor] Chemezov does not understand the consequences of such deliveries to Syria," Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis and Strategic Studies, said.

Over the last week, Rosoboronexport has braced for a loss of its most promising new market. Officials said Indonesia could cancel a deal for 12 Su-30MK fighter-jets in wake of the Asian tsunami disaster. They said Jakarta could instead purchase U.S. military air transports, such as the C-130, to facilitate disaster relief efforts.

Konstantin Makiyenko, a senior analyst at the Moscow-based Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, said Thailand could also shelve plans to purchase the Su-30MK fighter. Analysts warned that Russia could lose $1.5 billion in arms deals in wake of tsunami.

An analysis by the Moscow-based Itar-Tass news agency said that Russia has failed to develop advanced technology and instead has relied on France and Israel for export platforms. The analysis said Russia's military has refused

to procure such aircraft to avoid reliance on either France or Israel. "Russia exports mostly airplanes with French and Israeli avionics," Itar-Tass said on Dec. 12. "At that, such airplanes have not been acquired by the Russian Air Force because Russia may easily lose these supplies in case the international situation gets worse. There is little hope that Russia's high technologies may get better."


Copyright © 2005 East West Services, Inc.

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