MOSCOW — Syrian President Bashar Assad will travel here later this month to finalize what would be the biggest Syrian arms deal in 20 years.
The United States has warned Russia against the sale, and the trip has also set off a crisis in Israel.
Russian officials said Assad plans to discuss the purchase of Russian
long-range rockets, long- and short-range anti-aircraft systems, anti-tank
missiles and other weapons during his visit to Russia. Asad was scheduled to
arrive in St. Petersburg on Jan. 24 for a four-day visit in what officials
said would focus on defense and military cooperation between Russia and
Syria, Middle East Newsline reported.
President Vladimir Putin has approved the sale of several of the systems
requested by Syria, officials said. They include the export of the
Iskander-E mobile long-range rocket, also called the SS-26 missile, and the
SA-18 surface-to-air missile. Both systems have been developed by KBM
Instruments, based in Tula.
The United States this week warned Russia against selling missiles to Syria, but Russia denied planning such a sale.
Officials said Damascus and Moscow have already signed a preliminary
agreement for Syrian procurement of the SA-18, with a range of 5.2
kilometers and altitude of 3.5 kilometers. They said that during his visit
Assad was expected to sign a contract for the SA-18, sought by Damascus
since at least 2002.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, who held talks in Washington on
Wednesday, did not rule out an SA-18 sale to Syria. But he stressed that
Moscow does not plan to sell the Iskander-E to Damascus, and said this was
not raised by the United States.
The reported approval by Putin of the SA-18 and Iskander-E to Syria has
sparked a crisis with Israel. Officials acknowledge that Israeli Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon has recalled his ambassador from Moscow and refused to
see Russian officials until the proposed contracts with Syria were
suspended.
Israel has reserved its biggest objections to Russia's plans to sell
Syria the shoulder-fired SA-18, officials said. They said Israel has argued
that Syria -- with much larger mobile anti-aircraft batteries -- does
require the SA-18 and could transfer the system to the Iranian-sponsored
Hizbullah in Lebanon. Officials said Iran was believed to be financing the
SA-18 purchase.
On Jan. 11, Russia and the United States agreed to increase export
controls on man-portable surface-to-air missiles, known as MANPADS,
including the SA-18. The following day, the United States called on Russia
to block the sale of anti-aircraft missiles to Syria.
The reported approval by Putin of the SA-18 and Iskander-E to Syria has
sparked a crisis with Israel. Officials acknowledge that Israeli Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon has recalled his ambassador from Moscow and refused to
see Russian officials until the proposed contracts with Syria were
suspended.
Israel has reserved its biggest objections to Russia's plans to sell
Syria the shoulder-fired SA-18, officials said. They said Israel has argued
that Syria -- with much larger mobile anti-aircraft batteries -- does
require the SA-18 and could transfer the system to the Iranian-sponsored
Hizbullah in Lebanon. Officials said Iran was believed to be financing the
SA-18 purchase.
On Jan. 11, Russia and the United States agreed to increase export
controls on man-portable surface-to-air missiles, known as MANPADS,
including the SA-18. The following day, the United States called on Russia
to block the sale of anti-aircraft missiles to Syria.
In 2004, Russia reported a record export year of about $5.7 billion,
with China and India deemed the leading defense clients of Moscow. Still, as
late as two weeks ago, officials discounted the prospect of a major Russian
arms deal in the Middle East during 2005.
Syria owes $11 billion to the former Soviet Union, a debt that the Assad
regime has refused to pay to Moscow. But the officials said Putin has
enabled Syria to buy weapons for cash in an effort to restore Russian
influence in the Arab world in wake of the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime
in Iraq.
"We have no talks with Syria about such [Iskander] missiles," Ivanov
said. "There are no negotiations under way with Syria. We are already used
to having such information pop up before visits to Russia by Mideast
leaders."
Neither Russia's state-owned arms export agency Rosoboronexport nor the
Foreign Ministry confirmed plans to sell military systems to Syria. But the
ministry said Moscow maintained the right to trade with countries such as
Syria, which has not been under United Nations embargo.
"In our export policy we give special attention to prevention of
sensitive arms getting into the hands of international terrorists, and the
Israeli leadership knows this," the statement said.
"We're against the sale of lethal military equipment to Syria, which is
a state sponsor of terrorism," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher
said. "The Russians know about this policy. They know about our views."
Syria has also been negotiating for the Iskander-E, regarded as the most
advanced tactical rocket in Russia's arsenal, with a circle error of
probability of between 10 and 20 meters. The Iskander-E's launcher carries
two rockets that could be fired simultaneously in different trajectories in
a design meant to foil such missile defense systems as Israel's Arrow-2 and
the U.S.-origin Patriot. Each rocket has a range 280 kilometers and a
warhead that weighs 480-kilograms. The system was meant to be operated by a
three-man crew.
"Israel is extremely concerned that if the Iskanders are deployed, for
example, near the demarcation line in the Golan Heights area, virtually all
of Israel will be within the missiles range," the Moscow-based Kommersant
newspaper said. "They would be able to hit targets in Israel with the
accuracy range of 20 meters."
Officials said they did not expect Assad to sign a contract for the
Iskander-E during his forthcoming visit. They said Syria first expressed
interest in the solid-fuel Iskander-E in 2002, but the system was still in
development. In August 2004, Russia completed tests of the single-stage
guided Iskander-E and two months later resumed negotiations with Damascus.
Rosoboronexport plans to launch a major export promotion of the
Iskander-E in 2005. Officials said the export model would only contain one
rocket per launcher.
The Assad regime has also examined a range of other Russian systems,
officials said. They cited the S-300PMU-2 long-range anti-aircraft system,
the shorter-range TOR-M1 as well as the Kornet-E and Metis-M anti-tank
weapons systems. In 2002, Syria bought the Kornet-E and Metis-M and several
of the systems were transferred to the Saddam regime on the eve of the U.S.
invasion of Iraq in March 2003.
Russian officials said the Putin administration appeared intent on
completing the SA-18 sale with Syria in both an effort to promote foreign
policy as well as help Russia's defense industry. They said Moscow has
already suspended major arms deals with Iran amid U.S. pressure. In 2001,
Iran and Russia signed a defense agreement estimated at $7 billion.
Over the last day, Moscow has sent a series of messages to Israel
regarding the proposed SA-18 deal. Officials said the messages included
assurances that the anti-aircraft systems would remain in Syria under
control of its military.
But Russian analysts doubted that Moscow would sell either the Iskander
or S-300 to Syria. They said the United States would not allow Russia to
sell advanced weapons to Syria that could be transferred to Sunni insurgents
in neighboring Iraq.
"It is hard to imagine that [Rosboronexport director-general Viktor]
Chemezov does not understand the consequences of such deliveries to Syria,"
Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis and Strategic Studies,
said.
Over the last week, Rosoboronexport has braced for a loss of its most
promising new market. Officials said Indonesia could cancel a deal for 12
Su-30MK fighter-jets in wake of the Asian tsunami disaster. They said
Jakarta could instead purchase U.S. military air transports, such as the
C-130, to facilitate disaster relief efforts.
Konstantin Makiyenko, a senior analyst at the Moscow-based Center for
the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, said Thailand could also shelve
plans to purchase the Su-30MK fighter. Analysts warned that Russia could
lose $1.5 billion in arms deals in wake of tsunami.
An analysis by the Moscow-based Itar-Tass news agency said that
Russia has failed to develop advanced technology and instead has relied on
France and Israel for export platforms. The analysis said Russia's military
has refused
to procure such aircraft to avoid reliance on either France or Israel.
"Russia exports mostly airplanes with French and Israeli avionics,"
Itar-Tass said on Dec. 12. "At that, such airplanes have not been acquired
by the Russian Air Force because Russia may easily lose these supplies in
case the international situation gets worse. There is little hope that
Russia's high technologies may get better."