A group of U.S. specialists on China recently met in Taiwan and warned that China's shift of the military balance in Beijing’s favor could limit a U.S. defense of Taiwan.

A paper from the conference disclosed by the Taipei Times stated: “Given developing PLA [People's Liberation Army] capabilities, as well as deteriorating Taiwan capabilities, some analysts in the United States fear we are on the cusp of a tipping point where the PLA developed a capability to attack Taiwan and accomplish its political objectives in a speedy enough manner that the U.S. could not reasonably expect to get to the fight in time, even in the event of a political decision to engage."

Participants at the U.S.-Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue last month included Randall Schriver, former deputy assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs; Robin Sakoda, a former Pentagon official; Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council; and John Tkacik, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation.

The paper said China's rapid military buildup has made defending Taiwan a costly operation. “Many analysts believe that Chinese acquisition of modern cruise missiles and submarines (both anti-aircraft carrier capable) has moved us beyond the first tipping point — there is no longer envisioned a low cost US intervention," the report said.

A second tipping point is China’s growing capability to attack and defeat Taiwan before U.S. forces could reach the island and mount a joint defense.