LONDON ø The International Institute for Strategic Studies said the capability of Baghdad's military and security forces would determine the success of the post-Saddam Hussein regime.

Th institute, releasing its annual military balance on Tuesday, said security was also vital for the operation of Iraq's huge crude oil industry.

Iraq' new military and security forces would require at least five years until they achieved the capability to maintain order, Middle East Newsline reported.

The report said Iraqi forces were far from prepared to assume independent military and security tasks. The London-based institute said this meant the continuation of Iraqi dependence on the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq until 2010.

"It is essential that Iraqi security forces become the primary instrument of law and order," the IISS said in a report. "It may take five years for them to obtain the aptitude necessary to guarantee stability."

The report said the U.S.-led coalition has trained 36,000 members of the Iraqi military and security force. The institute said the formation of the Iraqi force was in a "very early stage."

[On Tuesday, a U.S. commander said Baghdad required another 10,000 police to ensure security. Maj. Gen. Pete Chiarelli, commander of the 1st Cavalry Division, said about 15,000 Iraqi police were deployed in the capital and the rest of the required force would arrive by July 2005.]

The institute did not rule out the departure of the coalition before 2010, when Iraq was expected to achieve military and security effectiveness. Several partners in the U.S.-led effort, including Britain, Italy and Poland, have been under pressure to begin withdrawing forces over the next year.

The report said the U.S. military was accelerating its campaign to stabilize Iraq in an effort to ensure elections scheduled for January 2004. The effort has included regular air and artillery attacks against such cities as Baghdad's Sadr City, Faluja, Ramadi and Samara.

The institute said the U.S. stabilization effort was being hampered by a large insurgency movement throughout Iraq. The report said up to 1,000 foreigners -- many of them supportive of Al Qaida -- have infiltrated Iraq and joined the battle against the coalition. IISS gave a similar figure in 2003.

"The substantially exposed U.S. military deployment in Iraq presents Al Qaida with perhaps its most attractive 'iconic' target outside U.S. territory," the report said.