Koizumi's Japan stakes out new independence in synch with U.S. 'hyperpower'

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Despite erosion of his unprecedented popularity, his cavalier manner, and low decibel if extended debate, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi continues to pursue [in the Japanese context] revolutionary strategies. His just completed routine cabinet reshuffle has confirmed the elements:

• At snailspace he is initiating a promised campaign to disassemble JapanÕs postal savings system, the heart of the 1959 economic paradigm in the countryÕs miraculous postwar recovery.


• Partially ensnarled in negotiations with Washington, he is steadily expanding the mutuality of the U.S. alliance, tacitly acknowledging the growing perception of a threat from North Korea, and even its ally China.


• Somewhat jerkily, Tokyo is beginning to exert its economic power, resurgent after the collapse of the Bubble Economy, in an activist diplomacy moving with as much independence as possible in the shadow of the U.S. ÒhyperpowerÓ.

Furthermore, on all these issues, Koizumi so far successfully faces down fierce opposition from traditionalists in his own Liberal Democrat Party, antagonistic if relatively inert public opinion, and the constant guerrilla attacks from the media.

JapanÕs postal system has been one of the most powerful forces in Japanese life. It was central to Òthe Japan modelÓ, permitting all-powerful financial and government industrial planning bureaucrats to direct capital away from consumption toward capital plant expansion. The postwar economyÕs savings largely belonged to Japanese housewives who chose the postal system ø protected by tax and interest rates against private competition. They were disbursed through semi-government development banks. For decades most Japanese economists believed the worldÕs second largest economy had become too complex for such centralized decision-making. But efforts to create a broader capital market, in the face of the enormous success of the system, failed until it imploded in the late 1980s.

The current recovery, after a decade of stagnation, still leaves more than a quarter of Japanese savings postal. Bankruptcy of the semigovernment banks, the growth of JapanÕs multinational corporate giants, and the unprecedented entry of foreign capital, has changed the system. Now Koizumi has forced a reluctant party, dragging the housewives along, to move toward eventual postal privatization ø if only scheduled for a 2007 start.

Just as difficult, Koizumi has accelerated Japanese rearmament ø even though he is not yet able to deliver on promises to amend Japanese Òno warÓ constitution. He had the ÒhelpÓ of an unannounced 1998 North Korean missile flown over Japan into the Pacific, virtually disarming Japanese doves. And October 1 finds a Japanese Aegis missile carrier joining U.S. ships deployed in the Sea of Japan as a defensive shield, just as Pyongyang tested new and longer range missiles. This is part of an anti-missile defense Japan has joined the U.S. to build.

Nor has a booming trade ø Japan is BeijingÕs No. 1 trading partner, China soon to be JapanÕs No. two export market ø disguised for a special experts panel reporting to Koizumi the possibility of Beijing becoming a military threat.

But the pace bothers Washington, annoyed by new problems with what were thought to have been conclusive agreements to move U.S. military operational headquarters to Japan. These relocations are part of the PentagonÕs ÒtransformationÓ, the post-Cold War, post-9/11 worldwide strategic remake. There are Ònot in my neighborhoodÓ hitches, too, in deconcentrating to venues elsewhere in Japan U.S. Marines in Okinawa ø with its long history of military-civilian blowups.

At the same time, Japan is pursuing as never before post-World War II an activist diplomacy øcalled for over decades by critics from Henry Kissinger to ultranationalist Governor of Tokyo Shintaro Ishihara. Koizumi defied public opinion by sending a token peace-keepers force to Iraq, and has lent approval and cooperation to WashingtonÕs anti-proliferation naval blockade.

But Koizumi, joining the U.S. effort to line up its neighbors to halt North KoreaÕs drive for nuclear weapons, nevertheless has embarrassed Washington by his bilateral initiatives. Still, the Diet has given Koizumi requested authority to cut Pyongyang off from important foreign exchange income from JapanÕs large Korean ethnic community. Promised food aid to North Korea may be delayed, Tokyo said in late September, after Pyongyang refused further information on Japanese it kidnapped in ÒX FileÓ scenarios. [The kidnapped are a big public issue.] Koizumi has pushed ahead with Iran oil investments [Tokyo is almost totally dependent on imported energy] against public calls from Washington for support [against Britain and the other EU countries] of its tougher line to halt TehranÕs nuclear weapons program. So far none of this has bent the alliance out of shape.

All told, Koizumi is moving Japan out of its long time warp, in which one of the worldÕs potential major players hid behind the U.S. nuclear shield. But if Koizumi is less the swashbuckling samurai, he does look to be a dedicated statesman in an increasingly dangerous world, taking politically dangerous career gambles ø if in slow motion.