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A SENSE OF ASIA

The Musharraf-Singh talk in a world terror context


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By Sol Sanders
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Sol W. Sanders

September 24, 2004

IndiaÕs new Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf will meet for the first time at the UN General Assembly in late September. The result could be a deciding factor in the war against terrorism.

They are an odd couple. Singh, a lifetime economist bureaucrat, UK educated, phlegmatic, a ÒnonmechanizedÓ Sikh replete with turban, playing second fiddle to the glamorous Italian-born Sonia Gandhi who put his electoral victory together and took [at least] a nominal backseat in running IndiaÕs 1.1 billion. Musharraf, Napoleon-sized lifetime soldier, once [at least] harboring dreams of being his countryÕs Ataturk, harassed, but [for the moment at least] all-powerful leader of PakistanÕs 145 million Moslems. They do share a horrendous experience: both were born in the other fellowÕs country, members of a minority, who fled their ancestral homes during the slaughter that followed partition of British India in 1947. One would hope it adds insight to find a peace between their countries which have fought three and a half wars, almost another three years ago. Stuffed with nukes and missiles, they constitute a constant threat to world peace as well as to each other.

But the world is now more than ever intertwined, so they play important roles in the curse of Islamicist terrorism and any hope of getting it under control. It was from PakistanÕs obscurantist madrassas ø religious schools ø Taliban cadre first erupted. If AfghanistanÕs war against Soviet domination was the cauldron out of which came its hosting of Osama Bin Laden, it was PakistanÕs intelligence apparatus and military whose logistics made it all possible.

It was one more step for Islamabad to use Islamic fanaticism to try to break Indian intransigence on Kashmir with an insurgency based in Pakistan. Whatever New DelhiÕs original claims, terror and counter-terror have led to an impasse. Both sides see the issue as crucial; to Pakistan because it has made it a national cause, to India because defection of a majority Moslem region would threaten unity in a country seething with regional nationalisms.

9/11 reframed all of this in the subcontinent as it did in the rest of the world. Musharraf, who seized power from corrupt, discredited feudal politicians [as his army forebears had done through much of PakistanÕs history], reversed course. President BushÕs invasion of Afghanistan forced Musharraf to choose the AmericansÕ coalition against worldwide Islamicist terrorism, and once again to become WashingtonÕs ally. Musharraf pledged to root out terrorist infrastructure, particularly in border areas with Afghanistan. And when the U.S. caught redhanded a Pakistani bazaar of nuclear technology and equipment selling to pariah states such as Libya and Iran, he closed it down [claiming disingenuously his military had no hand in it and denying swaps for missiles with North Korea].

India, meanwhile, continuing to try to breathe life into its Cold War Moscow alliance, sought to move away from traditional hostility to the U.S. For although peacetalk was in the air there too, there was the continuing perceived threat of China on its northern frontier in Tibet. The possibility of a U.S.-India alliance was even floated.

Improving relations with India made Washington, for the first time, an interlocutor between the two. How much the U.S. can actually do to defuse this convoluted relationship is open to question. But one thing is clear: it is not only in the U.S. interest but in IndiaÕs perhaps even more that Musharraf succeed in holding Pakistan to a moderate course. Not only because it is IslamÕs second largest state, but historically IndiaÕs Moslems have influenced world Islam toward a more catholic and humanitarian ethos.

MusharrafÕs fandango to work with the Americans, present a negotiating front to the Indians, and clobber homegrown terrorists while fending off the civilian politicians by courting the traditionally small [and equally corrupt] religious parties, has been a consummate act. But it is showing strains. He is apparently reneging on his promise, reached under Anglo-American pressure, to doff his uniform and bring ÒdemocracyÓ back to Pakistan. That is probably because Islamicist elements in the army of unknown strength do exist despite the Raj tradition of professionalism.

Singh, desperately trying to restart liberalization of the Indian economy but anchored to Communists for his parliamentary majority and Òpoverty wallahsÓ who want to restart failed 1950s social programs, hasnÕt much room to maneuver either. The fractious Kashmiris, themselves, now want in on the act. And marginal concessions on the Line of Control to recognize de facto occupations which New Delhi is apparently willing to make would probably only hand MusharrafÕs opposition an axehandle.

But progress to strengthen MusharrafÕs hand and quiet IndiaÕs own 150 million Moslems [increasingly showing signs of restlessness] is as essential to the worldwide effort on Islamicist terrorism as success in Iraq as well as its eastern outcroppings in Southeast Asia.

Sol W. Sanders, (solsanders@comcast.net), is an Asian specialist with more than 25 years in the region, and a former correspondent for Business Week, U.S. News & World Report and United Press International. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

September 2, 2004

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