Stagnation vs. Islamist terrorism in Indonesia

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

It took a bomb blast aimed at the Australian embassy to get the Indonesian terrorists back on the front pages. But with a crucial presidential election September 20, the Southeast Asian Jemaah Islamaih network, closely affiliated with Osama Ben LadinÕs Al Qaeda, is as important as Islamic fanaticism elsewhere. It not only operates across international borders in Southeast Asia, in Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand. But its activities have partially paralyzed local governments because of their concern for antagonizing more moderate Moslems.

Heading into a runoff ø the first direct elections in Indonesian history, a severe test of new democratic aspirations ø Òthe Moslem voteÓ has been at play. In a complex contest pitting leftovers from the 32-year-long Soeharto dictatorship, the military, linguistic, regional, racial, and regional antagonisms including armed separatist conflicts, the future of a stagnating society is in the balance. The charismatic qualities of the two leading contenders often override more fundamental issues of poverty and terrorism. But that Indonesia, founding member of OPEC has become a net importer in the face of huge oil and gas reserves, is only one dramatic sign of the failure of economic policy. [The breakdown of three-year-long negotiations between Exxon Mobil --after its investment of more than $450 million in a new field ø threatens further investment and technology transfer.]

The government of incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri has temporized on every issue. She is in a great tradition, daughter of the demagogue Soekarno who presided over massive decline during early independence rule 1945-68 but who remains a hero to his countrymen. She is notoriously indecisive ø famous for going on a Hong Kong shopping spree when Moslem fundamentalists waged religious warfare against Christians. Not the least has been her stop-go pursuit of the terrorists.

The car bomb set off outside the Australian embassy killed at least eight and injured more than 160. Police said the attack bore characteristics of the al-Qaeda-linked Jemaah Islamiyah, the group blamed for last year's attack on Jakarta's JW Marriott Hotel and the October 2002 Bali bombings. But whether the bombing would count in the elections, where more than half the population lives on less than $2 a day, some 70 percent of voters in rural areas, is still a question A poll taken by the Washington-based International Foundation for Election Systems found that just 1.2 per cent said terrorism was the most important issue facing the next president.

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the other presidential candidate who is favored to win, is a former Suharto-era general. His record in East Timor in putting down a local rebellion with great cruelty and loss of life makes him unacceptable in Western human rights circles. And he is associated with so far unsuccessful if bloody efforts to halt separatism in Atjeh in Northern Sumatra and in Indonesian New Guinea. As MegawatiÕs interior minister before he challenged her, he took a strong line on terrorism.

But if the mass of Indonesians do not see terrorism as the principle threat to their livelihood, the countryÕs neighbors and Washington have to worry. Singapore, for example, with its overwhelming ethnic Chinese majority, was to be the target of a Jemaah Islamaih multinational conspiracy to blow up major U.S. targets. It was nipped in the bud only when the U.S. was able to nab its mastermind in Bangkok, Hambali. But HamibaliÕs leader, a Moslem religious who appears to have had a direct hand in the Bali slaughter, has been in and out of Indonesian jails because of the governmentÕs fear of antagonizing Moslems.

By far the majority of Indonesians are at least nominal Moslems, making it the worldÕs largest Islamic grouping in the worldÕs fourth largest population of more than 200 million. Historically Indonesian Moslems have been more moderate with strong Hindu and animist traditions, but also with a fundamentalist minority in pockets around the huge archipelago. Religious schools catering to the countryÕs poorest have become centers of religious revival ø and a source of violence against the countryÕs small but influential Christian minority. The countryÕs largest social and educational Moslem organization, the Nahdlatul Ulama, which backed the failed presidency of Abdurrahman Wahid who preceded Megawati, has split.

Growing sanctuary for Islamic terrorism in Indonesia would be as much of a threat to world peace and order as the events in the Middle East. An effective government which is willing to extend maximum collaboration to its neighbors ø and the U.S.Ñ is essential if the smoldering Islamic terrorist networks in the region are to be subdued. Preventing their activities is important in mundane if critical ways to the international community; for example, joint armed patrols to prevent attacks on more than half the worldÕs oil traffic already subject to piracy in the Malacca Straits, the chokepoint on the oil lifeline in the area, is a matter of great urgency, so far blocked by Megawati.