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A SENSE OF ASIA

Nepal: An India-China crisis in slow motion


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By Sol Sanders
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Sol W. Sanders

August 26, 2004

In another time and place, NepalÕs leisurely implosion would be only another instance of a failed third world ministate, unfortunately all too prevalent in the volatile early 21st century world. In mid-August only an implied threat by the rebels ø who control at least half of the little Himalayan kingdomÕs countryside ø blockaded and paralyzed the capital for a week.

It wasnÕt clear whether the self-proclaimed Maoist leadership, who are primitive butchers even as much as followers of Mao Tse Tung claptrap theories, were expecting a Ògeneral uprisingÓ. That in Marxist dogma is supposed to follow their Òanti-imperialistÓ campaign of slaughtering police and teachers and enthralling oppressed peasants and na•ve intellectuals.

In any case, it didnÕt come.off. But the threat was enough to paralyze Indian-Nepalese traffic, close down major businesses, and ø of course ø scare away the tourists, the countryÕs main income. What was demonstrated, again, was the regimeÕs incompetence ø both the royal family [which almost disappeared in a single emulation by a crazed crown prince in 2001], the politicians, and the military. [Both India and the U.S. ø $40 million this year ø have tried to help modernize the Nepalese military.]

In Katmandu, the capitalÕs population was said to have been so inert there wasnÕt even a run on supplies. But there was just enough violence and support from above-ground radicals to terrorize and paralyze civilian life.

Perhaps more telling was the hand-wringing in New Delhi. That is, to the extent machinations of the continuing post-election politics did not squeeze the whole issue out of official and public consciousness. When New Delhi suggested dropping food supplies to thwart the blockade, the Nepalese reaction was mind your own business. The Indians quickly retreated.

Apparently everyone now goes back to the MaoistsÕ killings in areas they do not already control [more than 10,000 dead in five years], and feeble efforts of the King to negotiate while the politicians play musical chairs [15 governments in 10 years]. The Maoists use the usual tactics of negotiation and reprise of violence. Their stated aims are an assembly to end the monarchy, abolishing existing treaty arrangements with New Delhi [including the enlistment of the famous Gurkha mercenaries], building a Communist republic. But they reject present Chinese dogma as having abandoned true Maoist principles.

One of those accidents of colonial history, NepalÕs 27 million multiethnic, multiracial inhabitants live on a slice of the north India plain [no defensible physical border exists] and in the high Himalayan valleys and mountains [including Mt. Everest, the worldÕs highest]. The size of Arkansas, it lies between India and ChinaÕs so-called Autonomous Tibetan Region. With a Hindu monarch descended from an ancestor who retreated to the Himalayas during the Moslem conquest in the mid-18th century, it has the closest cultural and economic ties with India. The country could be said to be ripe for revolution with widespread poverty, a remote government perceived as corrupt, a conflict-riven royal family, a feudal system run by rich landlords.

Since the Communist takeover in Tibet, the Nepalese have maintained a carefully correct relationship with Beijing, accepting extensive aid [including connecting highways, making the Indians nervous]. Beijing has officially labeled the Maoists ÒterroristsÓ. Recently, the Nepalese swapped border tightening to end what both sides officially label weapons ÒsmugglingÓ for reversing KatmanduÕs throwing Tibetan refugees back.

But a revolutionary regime in Nepal, or even continuing rebel growth, is a threat the Indians cannot ignore. The Maoists have already made occasional forays into the Terrai, the lowlands abutting India. They have close links with similar revolutionary groups in India itself ø the so-called Naxallites and PeopleÕs War who carry on stop-and-go guerrilla-criminal campaigns in half a dozen Indian states. Again, these insurgents, in turn, originally took their cues from the Communist Party [Marxist-Leninist], the part of the Indian movement which sided with Beijing in the 1950s Moscow-Beijing split. They have ruled in West Bengal state [Calcutta] for more than 20 years. And their votes now give the coalition government its majority in IndiaÕs federal parliament.

Furthermore, a growing problem in Nepal fits into the general picture of troubled India-China border relations. Outgoing Prime Minister Vajpayee, with a visit to Beijing last year, tried to restart negotiations for a disputed border which broke into war in 1962. But Beijing wants an overall comprehensive settlement, ostensibly, and New Delhi wants detailed negotiations on issues at both ends of the long border ø from troubled Kashmir in the west to the Indian northeast with its half dozen local insurgencies. Already the atmospherics have turned sour with the Indians postponing opening old trade passes to Tibet and the Chinese refusing inspection of clandestine dams on rivers arising in Tibet and flooding India.

If the Nepal crisis continues to grow, as now seems likely, it cannot but be a new troubling issue between AsiaÕs two giants.

Sol W. Sanders, (solsanders@comcast.net), is an Asian specialist with more than 25 years in the region, and a former correspondent for Business Week, U.S. News & World Report and United Press International. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

August 26, 2004

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