India feeds Pakistan's malestrom

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

It isnÕt as though PakistanÕs Gen. President Musharraf needs more problems. Assassins not only stalk him but now try to pick off his military collaborators one by one. His armyÕs efforts to smoke out Al Qaida along the tribal border are producing minimal results.[Getting at the terroristsÕ cross-border hop scotching is crucial for American and Afghanistan President KarzaiÕs efforts to consolidate his regime.] Sectarian violence between Sunnis and ShiÕa communities is terrorizing Karachi, the countryÕs megalopolis always flirting with chaos. Old feuds among PakistanÕs majority Punjabis and smaller linguistic states over money and water are fanned by the disenfranchised civilian politicians.

Now a new Indian government, while professing to be willing to pick up on earlier ÒpeaceÓ initiatives of ex-Prime Minister Vajpayee, seems to be digging in its heels. The new Indian foreign minister, a Cold War career diplomat, has retreated to the 1972 Simla Accord. While it did fix a Line of Control in disputed Kashmir, references to it hint at a settlement based on present zones of occupation. That deal would be out of the question for Musharraf, already under attack from Islamicists and his civilian opposition for subservience to the U.S. How much his feeding the tigers and IslamabadÕs loss of control keeps the terrorist infiltration into Indian Kashmir going isnÕt clear. New Delhi waffles, apparently just as confused. But ÒAbandoningÓ Kashmir would cost Musharraf, even among his military.

Unfortunately, it doesnÕt seem New Delhi will offer concessions any time soon. A new unruly government coalition has replaced the former fragile one headed by Hindu revivalists. After a decade the Congress Party, an independence movement and then the longtime government party, has made an unexpected comeback. But its hold on power is tenuous. Not only is it a minority seeking support from two dozen smaller, mostly regional political groupings, but it carries all sorts of baggage. Its leader, credited with winning the election, is Sonia Gandhi, a reluctant politician who entered the fray after her husbandÕs assassination, because the quarreling leadership needed the Nehru-Gandhi name to survive. But her Italian origin became an election issue and she wields her new authority from the backseat, appointing a respected former civil servant and finance minister, Manmohan Singh as prime minister.

As if this two-headed directorate were not enough, the government lives on a majority supplied by two feuding Communist parties ø their divide going back to the Moscow-Beijing break. They oppose much of SinghÕs effort [himself a convert from the good old days when Soviet-style planning was fashionable] to Ò:marketizeÓ the economy, abandoning Soviet-style planning. It had been proceeding, haltingly, under the previous five-year coalition.

The governmentÕs few weeks in office have followed a rather jerky trajectory. For example, with Israel now IndiaÕs second military supplier [after Russia], the CongressÕ old pro-Palestine Liberation Organization policy is abandoned. Still it will try to court Arab-Moslem opinion for support on Kashmir. The 35-year Moscow alliance still has advocates in the new foreign minister and national security adviser. IndiaÕs once vaunted participation in Òthe Non-alligned MovementÓ was trotted out at the same time the foreign minister was in Washington to reconfigure the last governmentÕs flirtation with the U.S. [now IndiaÕs number one trading partner and increasingly hoped source for dual use technology].

But, alas! both India and Pakistan always see all policies through the dark glass of their bilateral relations. Both are continuing to test missiles, to boost their production of nuclear weapons [with Pakistan formerly a bazaar for would-be nuclear powers ended]. Musharraf, whatever his past associations, desperately needs promising negotiation on Kashmir, the touchstone of the relationship. No one ø certainly not the U.S. where Secretary Powell keeps making nice to encourage moderation ø has a ÒsolutionÓ. The 10 million Kashmiris probably would choose independence but there is considerably pro-Pakistan sentiment. Lodged between China [which occupies what was Kashmir territory in British Indian times], Pakistan and India, with a population which has been politicized, bought and sold, and terrorized for half a century, would be kindling in an extremely unstable area.

Musharraf, given his constituency, probably went as far as he could go with Vajpayee, who, in turn, surprised his own party and the country with his peace offer to Pakistan. No wonder Musharraf called Vajpayee in early June rather than the new government. But Vajpayee, now publicly lamenting his government election loss because of the anti-Moslem pogrom by the Gujarat state government [in the hands of his party] in the spring of 2003, has his back to the wall in his own party. The danger is if the Musharraf-Vajpayee efforts are not pursued energetically [and their friends in Washington] relations between the two nuclear-clad antagonists could spiral down as they have in the past leading to three and a half wars since independence.