Lots of troubles on U.S. security monitor

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

From the Mideast to Japan, any U.S. evaluation of international security and stability is troubling.

On the war against international terrorism, the infrastructure which Osama Bin Laden laid down is bearing fruit despite notable victories by Washington. But much of the politics which permitted its emergence remains.

On the effort to prohibit weapons of mass destruction proliferation, U.S. initiatives have made tactical inroads. But the problem remains intractable, in no small part because allies are yielding to domestic constituencies who do not want to bear the pain of aggressive action.

On the effort to expand a global mutually beneficial economic network, relapses to state and ÒcronyÓ capitalism inhibit progress. Furthermore interdependence has introduced new volatile elements which could present sudden economic crises.

Added to all this is endemic weakness of U.S. policymakers in an election year when every other campaign statement plays into the hands of the enemy.

It takes a French general, no less, to recently lay out the incredible difficulties of rolling up the Afghanistan campaign. But there may be a chance to capture Bin Laden, a tremendous propaganda boost for Washington.

Now it is Al QaidaÕs spawn to be confronted. There it is a mixed bag. PakistanÕs President Gen Musharraf still rides the tiger. Minority Islamicists, feeding on his token concessions to Western demands for ÒdemocracyÓ and their longtime infiltration into the institutions, are creating civil havoc. Cauterizing the Afghanistan border requires a subtle carrot-and-stick effort among tribals, untamed for centuries by any regime. Terrorists intertwined in Pakistani ethnic politics continue a bloody campaign in Kashmir. Malaysia, Singapore,. Indonesia, and the Philippines, with U.S. assistance, have shackled Al QaidaÕs surrogates. But in an Indonesian election year, Jakarta refuses to move aggressively against networks merging into legitimate politics.

On the anti-proliferation front, the principle problem remains North Korea. Administration strategy to mobilize a coalition of PyongyangÕs neighbors is in tatters. Washington publicly insists China has blocked recent North Korean WMD exports. But it admits, at least publicly, the only evidence BeijingÕs nuclear proliferating link to Pakistan has ended is deduced from BeijingÕs warming relations with New Delhi. It remains doubtful WashingtonÕs highly symbolic transfer of troops out of South Korea to Iraq ø based on obvious need and ÒtransformationÓ of Cold War deployment -- is going to bring President Roh back onto the U.S.Õ negotiating line.

Japan, while girding for an economic blockade to cut off North KoreaÕs principle foreign exchange source, takes an independent negotiating path. Prime Minister KoizumiÕs second trip to Pyongyang to beg for his kidnapped citizens, again promised massive aid if the North Koreans would make concessions. Russia has just adopted North KoreaÕs position of aid before disarmament, diametrically opposed to WashingtonÕs bedrock position.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, with its spotty reputation for policing, again has new evidence Iranian mullahs are lying about their extensive nuclear program. Imported equipment for enriching uranium, traces of enriched weapons-grade uranium, and programs mounted on military bases, refutes claims the program is passive. Again, the U.S. European allies ø led by Britain ø have blocked efforts to go to the UN. Simultaneously, the U.S. and IAEA continue to find extensions of the A.G. Khan network which operated from Pakistan. Malaysia, for example, has arrested Buhary Syed Abu Tahir, an international merchant playing a key role in the vast network supplying nuclear components to Libya and others. While there are still questions about QadaffiÕs coming clean about his programs, LibyaÕs renunciation has yielded enormous evidence on the traffickers.

Russia has just signed on WashingtonÕs Proliferation Security Initiative, a multilateral agreement to intercept shipments of WMD. .The PSI has been seen as a fallback position to halt North Korean exports. But Malaysia and Indonesia have rejected U.S. [and Singapore] entreaties to bolster policing the Malacca Strait, already subject to frequent piracy, the Southeast Asia chokepoint through which half the worldÕs shipping [and oil] flows. Washington recently trumpeted ChinaÕs acquiescence to new controls, but given BeijingÕs flouting of earlier agreements, any new found ÒconversionÓ to anti-WMD action has to be questioned. Nor can BeijingÕs huffing and puffing at Taiwan be totally discounted, what with its ongoing military modernization and TaiwanÕs reluctance to move ahead with a American-suggested rearmament.

On the economic front, all parties hang with baited breath on events in China. Not only does current economic slowdown have huge domestic implications, but it has been a magnet for imported raw materials and components at an ever increasing level. South Korea, with the Roh Administration stymied at effecting post-1997 crisis economic reforms, is already feeling the chill. IndiaÕs slow-moving liberalization under the former government are likely to move even slower with a Communist veto hanging over the new Congress-led coalition government. Only in Japan where the banking sector finally seems to have turned a corner, is their hope Ñ a decade-long stagnation is ending, even, if again, it is export-led.

Not a pretty picture that awaits a new administration in January.