India: No short-cuts in the politics of poverty

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

In a chaotic world IndiaÕs poll of its 1.1 billion people to decide its future is not to be discounted. Some 300 million people exercised their franchise. And inevitably in that huge diverse population the outcome was based on hundreds of issues, most regional and local. The spectrum stretched from bloc voting along rigid caste lines to, contradictorily, a revulsion against new manifestations of ÒcommunalismÓ [Indian for religious, ethnic and racial hatred leading to violence].

Political spinmeisters and the vibrant Indian media are now dissecting results, probably creating new myths. It is after all a country so vast, a discredited politician once said, anything could be said about it and be true.

Certainly one important cause of the defeat of outgoing Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] was its attempt to sell Òshinning IndiaÓ. The BJP leadership, led by Prime Minister Vajpayee, a vote getter more conciliatory than his partyÕs Hindu revivalist hardliners, crowed over a vigorous GDP. There has been highly publicized prosperity for a new middle class. The BJP boasted of IndiaÕs information technology [IT] industry ø so competitive it had awakened U.S. and British protectionist sentiments.

The BJPÕs principle national opponent, the victorious Congress Party which ruled India for most of its independence since 1947, argued the BJP program ignored the 80 percent of the population in 700,000 villages. [Interestingly enough, even in the urban centers New Delhi and Bombay, voters who allegedly profited most from the BJPÕs four and a half year rule, voted Congress.]

Again, it must be emphasized there were multitudinous issues, often exploited by regional parties on which any federal coalition government must depend: New DelhiÕs refusal to intervene in Gujarat where a state government was implicated in a pogrom apparently brought IndiaÕs 165 million Moslems back to their old home in Congress. [Sadly Gujarat is one of the countryÕs most prosperous states ø so much for theories about prosperity being the antidote to communal conflict.] In the more prosperous south [where voters turned out two state governments, one Congress, which had trumpeted IT], farmers hit by drought and regional separatists revolted. In 60-million West Bengal, Communists [who sided with China in the Moscow-Beijing break] hung on to their 30-year reign ø even though they have rejected dogma and joined their Chinese comrades to seduce foreign investors [the latest IBM]. And there was xenophobia whipped up by radical Hindu BJP supporters against Italian-born Sonia Gandhi ø an exploding agitation with the Congress victory, playing a role in her deciding not to follow the normal procedure of party leader becoming prime minister.

To this long time observer, however, there does seem a larger pattern: Once again India has had to reject the idea there are shortcuts to solving its poverty. IT and high tech Golden Ghettos is no more a magic solution to IndiaÕs problems than was Jawaharlal NehruÕs adopting Soviet planning in the 50s. [India pays and will continue to pay for those 35 years waste of resources.] Indian democrats rejected the authoritarian temptation when SoniaÕs mother-in-law Indira Gandhi had to back off declaring Òa national emergencyÓ in June 1975. Nor is some elitistsÕ cynical program for hegemony in South Asia --based on incredibly expensive weapons ø going to solve IndiaÕs problems. That shortcut has been advocated by no less a figure than secularist Moslem President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, sparkplug in its missiles and nuclear weapons development, and now playing a crucial role in naming the new government.

ItÕs easy to understand why Indians look for shortcuts. IndiaÕs problems are horrendous. In education alone, while India created seven world-class IT schools, less than six percent of its children complete secondary education. [A comparison ø perhaps incomplete given their relative sizes ø is how massive primary education helped bootstrap South Korea from a comparable per capita income to a leading world economy in a similar time frame.]

The danger ø suspicions expressed in the post-election markets collapse ø is Sonia GandhiÕs Congress will turn its back on the BJPÕs efforts to untie Gulliver by disbanding central planning, selling off the government sector, and ending bureaucracyÕs paper war against private investment. ItÕs all the more a threat because CongressÕ coalition will be hostage to a shaky parliamentary majority backed by the Communists. They have already announced they will oppose much of the liberalization.

There is also the threat Congress will lapse into old government Òanti-povertyÓ programs. Most were riddled with corruption, building a virtually useless bureaucracy which the BJP had begun to trim.

Sympathy for IndiaÕs poverty-stricken can best be expressed through building rural infrastructure. But massive increases in taxation to fund bogus social programs would only cripple the process of exploiting the Third WorldÕs largest reserve of skilled entrepreneurs.

As an Indian industrialist said long ago when criticized for his collaboration with the planners, it all seems easy to outsiders. But Indians looking for new shortcuts wonÕt solve its problems.