Sweating it out in India-Pakistan

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

The media made much Gen. President Pervez Musharraf sweating profusely in mid-January when he delivered his Òstate of the unionÓ required by his constitution [skipped last year after his coup dÕetat]. No wonder. He was wearing a bullet-proof vest under his white shalwar. [The traditional dress confirmed his promise to give up his uniform as head of PakistanÕs military by yearend]. Furthermore, even by the standards of the Indo-Pakistan subcontinent parliamentary brawls, it was pretty raucous for an amateur politician. There were walk-outs by both his opponents, rightwing Mullahs [he has made a deal with the moderate Islamicists] and representatives of the discredited old line political parties. He could hardly be heard above the catcalls.

But Musharraf, survivor of at least three assassination attempts in recent weeks, had a lot to say. He declared his own jihad against Islamic terrorists Òso that Pakistan can be turned into a proper Islamic welfare state according to the spirit of Islam and the wishes of Quaid-e-Azam [PakistanÕs founder Mohammed Ali Jinnah, a secularist] and Allama Iqbal [the 20th century poet who inspired its creation]." He reiterated a bid to for a Kashmir settlement after having made a major concession ø infuriating many by abandoning the demand for a plebiscite once promised by the UN. Musharraf had just completed protocol talks initiated by Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee who surprised his own party by calling for his ÒlastÓ peace effort. Musharraf answered with a unilateral ceasefire on the embattled Line of Control between the two-thirds of Kashmir held by the Indians and the Pakistan portion.

Musharraf has been busy at home: under Indian [and U.S.] prodding, he has lowered the boom on Pakistani-backed infiltrators into Indian-held Kashmir, although confirmation awaits the Himalayan spring thaw. For the first time ever he has moved regular Pakistan army units into the autonomous tribal areas along the Afghanistan border in pursuit of Taliban and Al Qaida remnants, signed a new agreement with Afghan President Hamid Karzai for border coordination. [In British India, the tribals were bought off despite all those Hollywood films.] And, surprisingly, in one of the most infected areas [Warziristan], he has won nominal support from tribal elders.

Indian leadership, whatever doubts about MusharrafÕs intentions and his ability to carry through, has sought to tamp down the feud ø which only two years ago seemed on the brink of a fourth Indo-Pakistan war since independence. But while ÒtalksÓ are to begin in February, there are too many memories of past failures for Indians, Pakistanis ø or Washington coaxing behind the scenes ø to be optimistic. The central issue, Kashmir is fundamental: a Moslem majority area contiguous to Pakistan which its leaders believed should have come to them in the 1947 Partition, and adherence of a population once pro-Indian as ÒproofÓ for New Delhi of its claims to secular statehood [with its 250 million Moslem minority, larger than PakistanÕs population].

To complicate things further, VajpayeeÕs BJP party, leading a volatile coalition government, goes into national elections in a few weeks. Vajpayee & Co. are hoping to exploit their network of regional parties alliances and the boon of the best monsoon in decades. They gave the BJP an unexpectedly impressive victory in three of four state elections in late 2003. The BJP has turned off its Hindutva [Hindu-ism] Ñ at least for the moment Ñ to the dismay of its hard-line Hindu politico-religious organizational base. It hopes VajpayeeÕs image as a moderate, its ties with secular parties and the current boom can be repeated nationwide. Whether the BJPÕs principal opposition, the Congress Party which held power for almost a half century, can make a comeback under Italian-born Sonia Gandhi, scion of the Nehru family dynasty remains to be seen Gandhi has now abandoned the CongressÕ strategy of first-among-equals, already arranged the defection of a powerful southern Tamil party from the BJP federal coalition.

Despite IndiaÕs development demands [the investment in agriculture infrastructure where most Indians live has fallen off significantly], VajpayeeÕs government is going full out on a mammoth armaments program. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov arrives shortly to put the finishing touches to a $1.6 billion purchase of a mothballed Soviet aircraft carrier [which most observers see as a white elephant] and a huge fighter complement. Another $2.7 billion deal with Britain, and massive high-tech purchases from Israel and the U.S. are underway. India, like Pakistan, has a huge missile program and development continues in both countries on their expensive and dangerous nuclear toys.

These vast expenditures for armaments in two of the worldÕs poorest countries bodes ill for settling the half century feud which makes each the principle prospective enemy. With more than two billion people ø a third of the worldÕs population ø in the South Asian region, its two largest nuclear-armed states longtime enemies, it is not only Musharrah who is sweating out these first tentative steps at reconciliation.