Memo for Dr. Rice: What is China up to?

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Beijing apologized in mid-November for its nuclear sub misbehaving in JapanÕs waters. [It didnÕt announce itself, didnÕt surface, and played cat and mouse with detection.] ItÕs not such a big deal: the Israelis had about the same time detected a Western [U.S, Italian, French?] submarine. [The Israelis speculate their sub was checking out IsraelÕs warning systems after ø shame on them ø Iranian-backed Hizbullah flew an unmanned vehicle through their tiny countryÕs air space.]

But the incident notched up worsening Beijing-Tokyo relations. And while pollyannas said it would soon be forgotten, like North KoreaÕs 1998 unannounced missile flight over Japan into the Pacific, it is one more wake-up call for Japanese leadership. A distinction between leadership and public has to be made. For it is perfectly understandable the Japanese, with huge World War II losses including a nuclear holocaust, the post-war occupation, who remolded their political system to become acceptable [including Gen. Douglas MacArthurÕs Òno warÓ constitution], and who for the first time in their history enjoy the full fruits of their industry, should want to forget their prowess in arts of war. That is part and parcel of their tongue-tied apologies for their WWII atrocities.

But what about the Chinese? Maybe it was just an electronic fishing expedition. But it comes on the heels of other aggressive moves. The Japanese, as hungry for imported energy as the Chinese, are upset Beijing has begun drilling within sight [and maybe siphoning] of Japanese claims. After threatening to get out of hand in a way that scares the pants off any repressive governmentÕs secret policemen, like ChinaÕs, Beijing has toned down machinations among students. But it came only after Japanese soccer players last summer had to have police protection.

Everywhere you look, Japanese-Chinese competition is heating up. They are, for example, both bidding for Russian oil from western Siberia. And both importune Moscow for access to new Sakhalin Island finds. They competitively negotiate for new free trade agreements with ASEAN countries. The Chinese are moving in on TokyoÕs longtime Brazil market [in part product of JapanÕs largest overseas community.]

All of this should be handled by grown-ups. Prime Minister Koizumi ø working revolutionary adjustments for which he is more the messenger than the inventor ø is trying to make Japan a ÒnormalÓ country.

That includes calling its defense forces what they are; at the same time assuming roles commensurate with its tested democracy and economic weight [20 percent of the UN budgets, the second largest contributor].But some Chinese believe they have old scores to settle, with Japan [and if truth be known, with the West]. Beijing waves the bloody shirt complaining bitterly ø echoed by a poorly informed Western media Greek chorus ø about Koizumi praying at the Yasukuni Shrine, a temple to State Shinto under the militarists. But the Japanese prime minister points out not only World War II war criminals are enshrined there but the dead of all JapanÕs wars. [Even Ronald Reagan, if with much controversy, paid his respects at a cemetery incorporating SS graves.]

All this comes as Japan increasingly integrates as a keystone into the U.S.Õ worldwide effort to stem international terrorism and damp down old trouble spots ø from the Kashmir sore between nuclear-clad India and Pakistan to the intractable dregs of European kulturkampf in Northern Ireland.

Perception counts for as much as reality. And thatÕs the danger. Outgoing Secretary of State Powell has been on a tear about how U.S.-China relations are better than ever. It apparently led him to step over the line to support ÒChinese reunificationÓ on Taiwan. But is it really true? Yes, trade has skyrocketed ø even if based on a horrendous U.S. imbalance, probably $200 billion this year, in no small part resulting from Chinese import barriers and export subsidies. China has presided over a six-power meeting to disarm the notorious North Koreans. But Beijing sides with the bizarre Korean monarchy, participates in North KoreaÕs proliferation [missiles and perhaps nuclear technology], and refuses to join the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative [PSI], a multilateral alliance to intercept weapons of mass destruction.

There is a good deal of breathless talk about ChinaÕs new willingness to participate in world politics. But that comes down to trying to close the U.S. out of Central Asia after WashingtonÕs post-9/11 pursuit of terrorists ø and an almost hysterical search for new energy.

Beijing blocks UN action on the worldÕs latest holocaust in Dafur, Sudan, while it laps up oil Western companies were forced by their public opinions to abandon.. Beijing encourages the mullahs to defy International Atomic Energy AgencyÕs efforts toward to block Iran nuclear weapons, again hinting at a UN veto. By closing off democratic initiatives in Hong Kong [once considered a model] and baiting Taiwan with a huge missile deployment, it heats up that problem.

Washington has an old history of misinterpreting ChinaÕs aims and capabilities. With a new secretary of state, it is time to take a good hard look.