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'Threat window' approaches in Taiwan Straits


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By John Metzler
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Friday, July 16, 2004

Bennington, VT Ñ IÕm beginning to think that amid IraqÕs desert sands and mirages, one wonÕt find a political genie, but rather a hard learned lesson. Not even about the Middle East, but concerning what we are not carefully enough monitoring in the PeopleÕs Republic of China. And given the glaring intelligence shortfalls on SaddamÕs Iraq, we should be prepared for far more sophisticated surprises from the Forbidden City in Beijing.

ThatÕs why SingaporeÕs next Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong quietly visited Taipei to help temper the simmering emotions across the Taiwan Straits between both sides of the divided Chinese nation. Though Beijing characteristically bellowed against this trip which saw Lee meet with key Taiwan political figures, the cool logic of entrepreneurial Singapore remains donÕt rock the boat for the Chinese speaking world.

While Washington remains transfixed watching the birdie in Baghdad, we have overlooked the leering dragon in Beijing.

Yes, we have noticed the massive pro-democracy demonstrations in Chinese ruled Hong Kong and correctly conclude that the former British Crown ColonyÕs feisty and free wheeling citizens donÕt feel very comfortable in their current status as Chinese comrades.

Still, even as a Special Autonomous Region of the PeopleÕs Republic, Hong Kong remains firmly under BeijingÕs control.

Indeed we chide the PRCÕs crude cultural genocide in Tibet, and thereÕs a growing awareness of the communist crackdowns against Chinese Christians especially on the Catholic church.

Equally at long last there seems an awareness that the near rhapsodic economic statistics to pour fourth from the PeopleÕs Republic, may not be quite what they seem. While regional growth has indeed been impressive, the high gear economy seems to be down-shifting. Here too, beware of BeijingÕs all too rosy statistics.

But nowhere is there a greater danger than in the delicate balance across the Taiwan Straits separating the two Chinese governments and indeed two very different visions of the future. Though a divided nation since 1949 when the Chinese communists seized the Mainland and the Nationalists retrenched to the island of Taiwan, both sides of the Chinese debate have long grudgingly accepted the status quo, namely Òwe are all Chinese and will reunify someday in the future.Ó Now letÕs do business.

Ironically despite the simmering political antagonism between Beijing and Taipei, investment and trade between the Chinese cousins has blossomed. According to TaipeiÕs respected China Post newspaper, ÒTaiwanÕs businessmen have funded more than 70,000 projects on the mainland, with contracted investment of more than $80 billion. Last year, the mainland along with Hong Kong, bought 34.5 percent of TaiwanÕs exports, becoming the islandÕs largest market.Ó

And according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), that for the second straight year Communist China overtook the USA in 2003 as the biggest recipient of foreign investment to the tune of attracting $53 billion.

Taiwan in recent years especially under the very narrowly re-elected Democratic Progressive Party government of President Chen Shui-bian, has seen the time honored mantra of Òone China and eventual reunificationÓ tossed into a rhetorical spin cycle which offers alternatives from outright Taiwan independence to more nuanced constitutional formulae for the future of the Republic of China. Though TaiwanÕs democratic government has prudently reigned in its own rhetoric about formal separation from China, Chen has had to dampen the DPPÕs expectations and enthusiasm. Still such debates in TaiwanÕs fiercely independent media have energized the most hard line elements in communist China.

Needless to say the PRC has never renounced the use of force for reunification of the motherland. Look at the record. Beijing continues its weapons buildup and has hardly tempered its bellicose threats towards Taiwan, the island it claims as part of the PeopleÕs Republic. Major PRC military maneuvers for cross-straits operations underscore the mindset. The Beijing dictatorship bides its time. Democratic Taiwan stands on the defensive.

U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier groups are steaming to fleet maneuvers in the Southeast Asian waters near Singapore; thatÕs a simulated wartime deployment. Pentagon estimates look to the year 2010 as a major Òthreat windowÓ for Beijing to bring about TaiwanÕs reunification the old fashioned way. Such a crisis could easily pull the U.S. into the East Asian vortex with global consequences.

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.




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