'India Shining'?
UNITED NATIONS Ñ The worldÕs largest democracy went on a roller coaster ride this week. First came the electoral upset of the governing nationalist party; then just as a restoration of the former Gandhi political Dynasty seemed imminent, heir apparent Sonia Gandhi stepped down shocking friends and foes alike. Reflecting this high political drama, shares at the overheated Bombay Stock exchange went into near cardiac arrest. Indeed events looked a bit like an erratic EKG monitor as IndiaÕs fortunes and future seemed confront a maze of hopes and contradictions.
The electoral upset of the governing Hindu nationalist BJP party whose campaign slogan was a confident India Shining was indeed unexpected by the pundits and punters. While BJP had brought India a modicum of middle class growth and genuine economic progress, the roots of this revival were regional and not too deep. The left-leaning Congress party, led by Italian-born Sonia Gandhi, heiress to the IndiaÕs long running post-independence political dynasty, was able to capitalize on the deep rural dissatisfaction and persistent poverty to turn the tables for this parliamentary upset.
In recent years India has confidently cast aside its once cherished self-reliance and state socialism and has embraced foreign investment and a more market oriented economy. The results have been impressive bringing a once anemic economy some genuine benefits Ñ 8 percent growth last year as well as a widening middle class. The BJP government stressed development and privatizations as India became synonymous with software and information technology.
On the international front, outgoing Prime Minister Atal VajpayeeÕs government opened a new positive era in relations with Washington Ñ long strained during the 1970Õs and 1980Õs. Perhaps most importantly, the Hindu nationalists seemed to defuse the nuclear tensions with neighboring arch-rival Islamic Pakistan over the long disputed Kashmir region.
Ironically until a decade ago, India as a democracy adhered to a form a state directed socialist planning. Under BJP the New Delhi government stressed capitalizing on education and the use of English language, India played the information technology card and became a home to business outsourcing. But globalization offered a mixed bag for IndiaÕs billion plus people.
Significantly the new government has signaled that reforms will continue with the appointment of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a former Congress party finance minister who played a key role in market reforms more than a decade ago and who is widely respected by the business community. The appointment of the Oxford educated Dr. Singh bought relief to uneasy markets and accolades from the press. The Financial Express exclaimed ÒThe Doctor Takes Charge!Ó
Markets and investors were particularly nervous though that a new Congress led government with some very unapologetic communist party coalition supporters, could begin to turn back the clock on economic reforms. The Left Front Ñ a group of four communist parties-will support the new government, at least tactically. Thus many opportunities for economic mischief undermining Dr. Singh lie in wait.
In India, the extent and depth of development Ñ beyond Bombay and the technology hubs, poses a giant challenge to the New Delhi government. Going back to its old playbook from the 1960Õs and 1970sÕs wonÕt work in a land which despite its deep agrarian roots has equally become part of AsiaÕs financial structure.
India has many cards to play but not to flaunt. A working democracy and a secular government in restive South Asia can certainly be a force for stability. Still democracy while weaving together a myriad of traditions, languages and cultures cannot in itself create the needed and sustainable economic development. That comes from a government providing for Ñ or better yet Ñ not interfering with and impeding the conditions to encourage genuine enterprise.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.  |
