Global economic growth expands
UNITED NATIONS Ñ The global economy is growing and conditions are ÒbuoyantÓ according to a United Nations study. While world growth is now slated to 3.7 percent for 2004, the conditions in the USA and China are particularly good.
The Report ÒGlobal Economic Outlook 2004Ó under the auspices of Project LINK and the United Nations peg the USAÕs growth for 2004 at better than 4.5 percent, slowing to just over 3.5 percent in 2005Ñvery impressive numbers for such an extraordinarily diversified economy.
The PeopleÕs Republic of China, another major economic engine is expected to register 8.5 percent growth this year.
Interestingly economic expansion in the European zone is far more modest where growth rates are expected to fall slightly below 2 percent in 2004 with and anemic rise to 2.5 percent next year. Ironically the expansion actually results from the new members of the European Union.
According to the UN study Japan finally may be out of its decade-long recession with growth just over 3 percent this year but falling to 2 percent in 2005.
One of the other success stories South Asia is India who has projected over 6 percent expansion in 2004. IndiaÕs development in recent years results from a long-overdue business friendly investment climate which builds upon the countryÕs education standards, hard work, and English language proficiency.
The UNÕs Economic and Social Council likewise released its Economic survey with some good news following the 1997 Asian Economic crisis and the after shocks of the SARS health epidemic.
The survey states, ÒDespite the impact of SARS, collective GDP growth in South East Asia in 2003 exceeded the pace of 2002. The worst affected was Singapore where growth rates fell below 1 percent in 2003. Prospects for 2004 are positive, with GDP growth expected to pick up further momentum in all countries in the sub-region.Ó
Southeast Asian states such as Vietnam and Thailand are registering good results with Vietnam coming in at 7.5 percent percent this year at a projected 8 percent for 2005. Thailand has emerged from the shockwaves of the 1997 crisis and now sees growth as 8 percent this year and 7.5 percent for 2005. And Singapore a major a highly diversified economy is back in the major leagues with 4.7 percent for 2004 and just slightly projected for next year.
The Asian region, by harnessing market forces and maintaining the worldÕs highest savings rate has become a global economic leader, but must nonetheless tap the potential of its financial systems to benefit the 800 million people still struggling to survive on less than $1 a day, warns the U.N.Õs ESCAP. In other words despite the strong and sustainable development in most of East Asia Ñ large gaps persist where people still earn well below the absolute poverty rate.
In 1990 for example Mainland China has had 31 percent of its people in abject poverty; by 2001 the number was cut to 14 percent. In India the numbers fell from 46 percent to 35 percent in 1999 Ñ the most recent statistic. And in Vietnam the numbers declined from 50 percent in 1990 to just over 14 percent in 2001.
While I personally feel that these poverty numbers are probably still understated, the clear and may I say optimistic news remains that communist China and Vietnam and once socialist self-reliant India, have immeasurably changed policy for the better.
Governments have shifted away from doctrinaire socialism and collectivism and towards capitalism and enterprise driven development. Despite what individuals in Beijing, Hanoi or New Delhi may wish to label it for political reasons, the bottom line has been to encourage a more realistic and positive economic model which will, at the end of the day, reward work and enterprise. More people have benefited and all boats lift with the rising tide of prosperity.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.  |
