Taiwan's blurred ballots
UNITED NATIONS Ñ TaiwanÕs political democracy has been running on high octane for over a decade Ñ now itÕs running on high drama in the wake of hotly disputed Presidential elections. Incumbent President Chen Shui-bianÕs photo-finish victory over the Nationalists/KMT raises emotions and stokes uncertainty. The results, amid widespread charges of fraud and chicanery tragically produces turmoil, depresses stock markets, and ultimately creates an image of wounded and weak winner. Ominously the Beijing dragon leers at the small island of 23 million free Chinese.
While graphically highlighting the political differences between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, the disputed vote equally casts doubts on an island divided by two disparate domestic visions. One view generally defined by Democratic Progressive Party has support from native Taiwanese, and the KMT from the Mainlanders and their descendents who came to Taiwan in 1949 after the communist conquest of China.
The ruling DPP plans to lead Taiwan towards formal independence Ñ that is, going beyond TaiwanÕs current de facto sovereignty and making a formal break with being a part of ÒChina.Ó Such a move would cross BeijingÕs red line.
The KMT opposition known as the Pan-Blue Alliance advocates the status quo Ñ as does the U.S. State Department Ñ namely that China remains a divided nation between the PRC communists on the Mainland and the Republic of China on Taiwan.
At issue rests the legitimacy of the outcome as much as the process itself Ñ given every election must have a winner and loser, the problem is the populations perception. The Nationalists are predictably bitter, but the winning DPPÕs risky political plans may be thwarted too. A separate high profile referendum on the communist missile threat went off with Taiwan voters like a wet firecracker Ñ it failed.
The final tally saw the ruling DPP squeaking to victory with a mere 30,000 votes out of 13 million cast; the KMT focuses on 300,000 invalid ballots and argues that with security forces placed on alert after what the opposition labels as a mysterious 11th hour assassination attempt on President Chen, many of the military who traditionally vote Nationalist did not get the chance. Chen has now given the green light for a recount.
The good news is that the Republic of China on Taiwan remains a thriving and vibrant democracy; the bad news emerges that the deep division over ChenÕs DPP disputed poll victory not only causes political rancor but stirs turmoil in markets. No matter whoÕs formally declared the winner, in the court of public opinion, both sides are actually now the loser. Investor confidence and the can do self-reliant spirits which propelled Taiwan from a sleepy island in 1949 to a East Asian dragon economy are being mortgaged to rancor and rhetoric.
The Beijing regime which arrogantly claims Taiwan island as a Òrebellious provinceÓ but a part of the PeopleÕs Republic has been uncharacteristically quiet, contrary to two previous Taiwan elections in 1996 and 2000 when BeijingÕs bullying to TaiwanÕs democracy actually became the big story. This time the dragon appears almost too quiet.
One of the few things the PRC and ROC long agreed on was that they are China albeit in a fundamentally different political vision. Any tampering with that fragile formula needlessly risks BeijingÕs military wrath, and threatens East Asian instability, and indeed could pull the USA into the political whirlpool.
Plainly the Bush Administration while supporting Taiwan's security remains deeply disquieted concerning President ChenÕs oft-repeated moves towards tweaking the dragon either over formal independence, changing the constitution, or name of the country itself. Any such moves may prove to be a lightning rod for trouble.
Should any conflict flare up in between the PRC and Taiwan, the UN Security Council would not lift a finger to defend Taiwan as some are apt to think. TaiwanÕs long running success story of economic and political achievements over the past decades should not be mortgaged to political rhetoric, but serve as a model for all China.. ThatÕs the outcome Beijing really fears from a free Taiwan.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.  |
