What's ahead in 2004?
Bennington, VT Ñ TisÕ the season for predictions, prognostications, and good guesses.
The following are mine for this New Year. But before doing so, heartfelt thanks to our military. They are overstretched and literally on the front lines from Baghdad to Bosnia, and Korea. They deserve our admiration and support.
War on Terror Ñ We ARE winning but Al Qaida terrorists have enough fundamentalist crazies to keep the grisly global game going for years. This is a cyclical threat and has less to do with a single victory than a cumulative wearing down of the opposition. While a powerful U.S. economic recovery rolls on, this is one area where terrorists can focus attacks to disrupt business and consumer confidence.
Pakistan remains the pivot in many ways Ñ the fundamentalists aim to replace secular Gen. Pervez Musharraf with somebody supportive of their radical Islamic agenda. Look at the map. The Islamabad governmentÕs onetime support to Taliban and other radicals in bordering Afghanistan, PakistanÕs territorial disputes with neighboring India over Kashmir, its nuclear arsenal, and restive Islamic population are all are part of the mix.
Iraq Ñ the calls for America to return to the UN for a political benediction sound logical and prudent; but why would Iraqi militants and terrorists accept an occupation force of foreign troops other than Americans and British? They respected the UN so much they bombed its Baghdad headquarters twice!
Tragically, deadly attacks on American and coalition forces will continue as we pursue a classic counter insurgency campaign. A well-armed, financed, and motivated five-percent of the Iraqi population can keep the situation simmering for some time.
Libya provided some good news. Col. Gadaffi presumably came clean on the proscribed weapons he claimed not to have in the first place. Score a victory for creative American diplomatic assertiveness Ñ backed up by the AdministrationÕs backstage arm-twisting. The mercurial Colonel was offered a less than subtle hint that he may suffer the same fate as Saddam.
Libya has a long way to go to reverse its longtime image of the patron to international terrorists, but Gadaffi now seems to calculate that nixing his nascent nuclear program will buy him time and wary respect. Trust but Verify.
Iran Ñ the devastating earthquake which jolted southern Iran may cause deeper political reverberations. Western humanitarian aid from Òinfidel countriesÓ was rapidly forthcoming while many Muslim states did little. Political tremors await IranÕs Islamic regime.
Euroland Ñ the European Union is set to expand Ñ this time with ten new members. While some Ñ the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland Ñ come with the personal benediction of this column, the fact remains, how long can this European supra-state submerge national sovereignty and at whose expense?
Far East Ñ JapanÕs Prime Minister Koizumi distinguished himself by supporting American policy and sending troops to Iraq. Not to be outdone, South Korea pledged even a larger force making the ROK the second largest troop contributor after the U.S. and UK. Now Tokyo, Seoul, and Washington must redouble their diplomatic efforts to denuclearize communist North Korea.
China-- Free China on Taiwan will hold another democratic election in March and the Marxist Mandarins on the Chinese Mainland donÕt like it. Too bad! Yet, Taiwan is well advised not to mortgage its hard earned socio/economic prosperity and political freedom on rhetorical flourishes which can jolt the status quo across the Taiwan Straits and pull the U.S. into a Pacific whirlpool.
U.S. Presidential Race Ñ DonÕt underestimate Howard Dean. Forget the standard sop line that heÕs an easily beatable Green Mountain McGovern. Dr. Dean is too slick to fall into that political crevice unless heÕs pushed by his own party.
Despite his genuinely underwhelming foreign policy experience excepting occasional gubernatorial forays to nearby Montreal, Dean has emerged as Dr. Divisiveness, touching the raw nerves of the perma-perturbed part of the population.
Will he get the Democratic nomination? Likely, yet in politics is not over until itÕs over Ñ and the race really hasnÕt even started. Surprises await him too, possibly in the snowfields of Iowa. DeanÕs smugness and prep school prissiness may work against the former Vermont Governor. Still his big money offensive has yet to be launched against President George W. Bush.
The Economy ø Speaking of money Ñ the robust American economic recovery, and the strongest stock market gains in seventeen years, bode well for the New Year. While 2003 began with investors in a gloomy mood, the ÒBaghdad BounceÓ following the victory over Saddam proved sustainable. HAPPY NEW YEAR!
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.
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