A look ahead to 2005
Bennington, VT Ñ TisÕ the season for predictions, prognostications and good guesses.
Here are mine on the foreign policy front for 2005.
As in the past I offer a special tribute to the men and women in the U.S. Armed Forces serving from Korea to Iraq and so many places in between. We owe them a special gratitude for service, stamina and sacrifice.
War on Terror Ñ The U.S. has won some impressive victories here and has likely thwarted what had been Al Qaida plans and plots to hit America especially during the Presidential election period. The FBI and Homeland Security have performed a yeoman service, but they face the Herculean challenge to be right all of the time.
Iraq Ñ The January election will be held on schedule but with a predictable upsurge in violence. Despite the fact that most Iraqis will have their first chance for a free and fair vote, numerous naysayers in America and Europe will glibly disparage the results. DonÕt expect a logical outcome with a victory by Òpro-coalition forces.Ó Still, look to the results as a deeply unsettling harbinger to neighboring Middle Eastern regimes whose people will see that democracy is possible after all. Six months after the outcome, the U.S. should start phasing out major military forces from Iraq but keeping advisory groups.
Iran Ñ The Islamic Republic seethes with political ferment and discontent over the MullahÕs inept misrule. Washington would be wise to let the situation percolate but clandestinely channel resources and encouragement to effective opposition forces. Regime change in this charter member of the Axis of Evil is necessary before the Atomic Ayatollahs hold the nuclear card. Playing political offensive in the UN Security Council in this case is a non-starter Ñ some creative non-military operations aimed at toppling the thugs ruling Teheran is warranted.
North Korea Ñ Here too the growing nuclear weapons capabilities by the Democratic PeopleÕs Republic of Korea pose a clear and present danger both to East Asia and America. The multilateral diplomatic discussions through which the U.S, South Korea, Japan, PeopleÕs China and Russia pressure Pyongyang are the best chance for a solution.
One-on-one USA/DPRK discussions pose a dangerous gambit. If such bilateral talks fail, Washington gets blamed Ñ the other way; we spread the political risk and increase the political pressure on the Pyongyang communists.
China/Taiwan Ñ Recent legislative elections in Taiwan turned down the rhetorical heat among the separatist forces pushing for a de jure break with the concept of one China, albeit it divided. Beijing is expected to provoke Taiwan with a Òlaw against secession.Ó Given that the PRC communists have never renounced the use of military force against
democratic Taiwan to which they arrogantly lay claim, any moves to change or reinterpret the status quo across the Taiwan Straits are fraught with danger.
Energy Crisis Ñ China will grow rapidly as an oil consumer. In the past few years the PeopleÕs Republic petroleum consumption has created in effect, a new Japan on the global demand charts. BeijingÕs recent energy deals with Iran, Venezuela and Canada bear very careful monitoring.
Euroland Ñ Both sides need to kiss and make up. The trans-Atlantic political estrangement is peevish and shortsighted. The European UnionÕs enlargement to 25 countries Ñ with yet more members in the waiting, presents a new political geography in one of AmericaÕs closest regions. Though many European countries support us with troops in Iraq Ñ Britain, Denmark, Italy, Netherlands, Poland Ñ others donÕt and wonÕt. This is no longer the issue to draw the line.
Europe has its own very deep problems with Islamic fundamentalism. The terrorism carried out in Spain, hate crimes committed in France, and the murder of the Dutch filmmaker Van Gogh have reminded Europe that the war on terror is hardly just Òan American problem.Ó While the Euros may wish to rationalize this they are dead wrong.
South Asian Tsunami Ñ The near Biblical earthquake and Tsunami tidal wave which led to the catastrophe in South and Southeast Asia killing 125,000 reminds us that the forces of nature are as powerful as they are unpredictable. Thailand will bounce back but special attention should be given to health and rebuilding assistance to Indonesia and Sri Lanka. The carnage and chaos created by nature underscores that man, despite our science, hubris and certainty creates mayhem beyond our control. The U.S.- led relief coalition of Australia, Japan and India is well positioned to extend serious humanitarian and economic assistance.
Bush II Ñ The second Bush Administration has extraordinary opportunities and steep challenges. Reinforcing friendships with close allies such as Japan is crucial but also reinvigorating ties with overlooked friends in Latin America remains overdue.
Happy New Year!
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.  |
