A post-Cold War 'Clash of Civilizations' in Ukraine
UNITED NATIONS Ñ A political winter for Ukraine may be on the horizon in the wake of the recent disputed presidential elections. Massive pro-democracy demonstrations have been continuously held in the capital Kiev in support of opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko who was swindled out of victory. The disputed outcome of the vote provoked a tumultuous domestic political crisis, chilled East/West relations, introduced a dangerously destabilizing element to a former Soviet-republic, and above all threatened civil chaos.
Hopefully now a last minute deal brokered by outgoing President Leonid Kuchma may allow for political reform and new elections, possibly defusing the crisis. But the devil is in the details especially in the wake of a curious meeting in Moscow between Kuchma and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the crisis.
The dilemma rests not only on the political vision between a reformist pro-Western candidate and an adherent of closer ties to Moscow, but rather reveals the historical, linguistic and geographic fault lines which plague this huge land thirteen years after independence from the Soviet Union.
Viktor YushchenkoÕs pro-Europe party is strongest in the western Ukraine; a region which is primarily Catholic, politically and philosophically wedded towards Western Europe. The party of Viktor Yanukovych is rooted in eastern Ukraine, bailiwick of the old guard which favors closer links to Russia and views the Kremlin as its political polestar. Though most foreign observers concede that the election was clearly rigged and stolen from Yushchenko the old fashioned way, the fact remains that in large parts of this land, the pro-Russian candidate was genuinely the clear winner. Thus the decidedly dangerous divide in this country of fifty million.
This fragile political fault line between Catholic/Orthodox, evokes Samuel HuntingtonÕs classic article Clash of Civilizations, which presents a post-ideological view which rests as much with social/religious culture rather than straight politics. Historically the East has been in MoscowÕs sphere of influence while the Western Ukraine looked to Poland and Western Europe Ñ and increasingly America and Canada.
Though many pundits view this as a renewal of Cold War type confrontations with Moscow this remains unlikely given that Moscow will not likely jeopardize its relations with Washington and the West. Still Ukraine, no matter what the electoral outcome, remains geographically and economically dependent on Russia who in turn sees its Black Sea naval bases in Ukraine as a vital..
Still by clumsily playing the Yanukovych card, Vladimir Putin has opened a political PandoraÕs Box which has released emotions and forces which have yet to settle. Most troubling remains the political lesson Ñ namely can a genuine reformist and democratic force attain power in a former Soviet republic and not set an example for contemporary Russia itself? ThatÕs why Putin opposes an electoral run off in Ukraine.
ÒA truly democratic Ukraine would give an enormous boost to the prospects for democracy in the rest of the former Soviet Union,Ó advises Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, writing in the Wall Street Journal. ÒThat is why the KGB dominated elite which is today ensconced in the Kremlin is so hostile to genuine democracy in Ukraine.Ó Dr. Brzezinski adds, ÒA democratic Ukraine would not be anti-Russian but it would inevitably generate strong pressures for a democratic revival in Russia.Ó
Interestingly some 150 Ukrainian diplomats stationed worldwide issued a public statement supporting democratic opposition candidate Yushchenko.
The disputed vote and the ensuing political standoff evokes Serbia a few years ago. There too tumultuous street demonstrations kept a the pressure on the corrupt system Ñ and there was finally change. In Kiev the orange banners of the emboldened Ukrainian opposition pose a clear reminder that the KGB-type tactics provided the hidden hand manipulating much of the vote, will not be tolerated any longer. But whoever finally wins inherits a deeply dysfunctional economic system mired in serious corruption.
Some observers say a political split between the two rival political and indeed cultural groups would be best Ñ roughly evoking former CzechoslovakiaÕs Velvet divorce into two countries. In other words let them separate. But this tactic rewards the fruits of fraud. Many call for the economic carrot of future European Union membership.
Importantly the U.S. and European Union have not accepted YanukovychÕs ÒvictoryÓ and have called for dialogue and political compromise. Indeed any spillover of the crisis could effect NATO countries bordering Ukraine Ñ namely Poland and Hungary.
But the Russians are playing chess here, the West is playing checkers. Still the first step is to pull Ukraine back from the brink.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.  |
