Atomic clock ticks in Teheran
UNITED NATIONS Ñ The atomic clock is ticking in Teheran. Or more precisely the virtually unchecked nuclear proliferation by the Islamic Republic of Iran continues apace with only procedural oversight by international authorities and a tepid willingness by key Foreign Ministries to seriously confront a country which could emerge as a nuclear weapons power sooner rather than later.
Recent diplomatic initiatives by Britain, France and Germany aimed at controlling Iranian nuclear proliferation possibilities are warranted but deal with treating the symptoms Ñ enriching uranium and producing plutonium, namely its proscribed bomb making capability. The problem remains the near theological convictions of the Teheran regime that it not only has a sovereign right to possess nuclear weapons but will find a way hook or crook to procure them despite the political opprobrium.
Yet such optimism ahead of a review by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) the UNÕs nuclear watchdog group, presupposes the ability of the West to offer Iran commercial and political incentives which will serve as trading barter in exchange for ending nuclear proliferation. The alternative as proposed by the Bush Administration, would be taking the case to the UN Security Council.
Ironically tough diplomacy leading to Security Council action, would likely prove counterproductive and dangerously lead IranÕs principal critics down a blind ally. A Security Council draft resolution pressing for economic sanctions would be sidetracked by the very countries doing brisk business in Islamic Iran Ñ France, China , Germany, Russia . And what would be embargoed Ñ oil, the very lifeblood of the countries proposing sanctions? Carpets, pistachios?
As the Soviets used to say, Òlook at the correlation of forcesÓ in the Security Council. The USA and Britain (with far less enthusiasm) will press for a hard line. France with beaucoup business interests in Iran will offer some nice rhetoric but little else.
Russia Ñ who just sold Iran a nuclear power station at Bushehr and maintains lucrative commercial contracts will beg to differ. PeopleÕs China Ñ weapons supplier to and a major trade partner with Teheran will press for a Ònon-confrontationalÓ approach on the nuclear proliferation issues.
DonÕt forget that the Islamic Republic of Iran remains a major oil exporter to the European Union and Japan and moreover is the largest petroleum supplier to the PeopleÕs Republic of China.
Thus at best, the Security Council route could offer a slap on the wrist to the Atomic Ayatollahs and at worst provoke TeheranÕs hardliners to prioritize proliferation as the ultimate insurance policy against further Òforeign intimidation.Ó
One again the world community has been wooed into the trance that Teheran at long last may be willing to play by the rules. But the mendacious mullahs are playing by a very different game book; while the Europeans and the USA press for verifiable nuclear non-proliferation, the mullahs will view this demand like the proverbial bazaar merchants and strike a Òfloating dealÓ which somehow will look good at first and then appear as not quite the diplomatic Òbreakthrough Ò that we originally assumed.
The recent European Union Agreement states ÒIran has committed itself to immediately suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities as a confidence building measure.Ó The EU equally reconfirmed IranÕs right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes in accordance with the non-proliferation treaty (NPT). Still European negotiators concede that this suspension is simply a first step in a complicated process which would guarantee TeheranÕs nuclear non-proliferation. Even the perpetually optimistic EU diplomat Javier Solana concedes, ÒIt is however only the start. We now need to work rapidly to produce a solid long-term agreement.Ó
A New York Times editorial cautioned, Òunfortunately this agreement does little more than reinforce, and slightly expand, a freeze that Iran agreed to last year, then abandonedÉgoing down this imperfect road again must not mean letting Iran string EuropeÕs diplomats along indefinitely while secretly readying itself to begin building nuclear weapons. Iran has a long history of cheating on its nuclear non-proliferation obligations and Europe has a history of refusing to draw the line.Ó
A quarter century after the collapse of a pro-West Iran into the camp of Islamic fundamentalism and clerical rule, strong secular political undercurrents are eroding the once firm control of the mullahs. The corruption and incompetence of TeheranÕs theocrats, combined with an exploding youth population, high unemployment, and frustration by a talented but disenfranchised people has sparked political resistance.
The Persian puzzle which policymakers face--given the political stakes, remains as crucial today as it was a quarter century ago when this odious regime seized power in Teheran. The challenge for U.S. policy remains actively supporting democratic political change inside Iran and stopping the still-ticking atomic clock.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.  |
