LONDON ø Western intelligence analysts doubt
the credibility of a purported Al Qaida group that has threatened new attacks in
Europe.
Yigal Carmon, president of the Washington-based Middle East Media
Research Institute and counter-terrorism adviser to three prime
ministers, said the Abu Hafs statement does not represent Al Qaida.
"The text of this statement includes linguistic usages and concepts that
are incompatible with or alien to authentic Al Qaida writings by Osama Bin
Laden, Dr. Ayman Al Zawahiri, and others," Carmon wrote in an analysis.
The analysts said the Abu Hafs Al Masri Brigade appears to be a
fictitious organization that could represent part of Al Qaida's psychological warfare
campaign against the West. They said Abu Hafs has taken responsibility for
non-existent attacks and that its communiques don't bear Al Qaida's imprint.
Abu Hafs has claimed responsibility for the Madrid train bombings on
March
11 in which 202 people were killed. On Thursday, the London-based
Al Quds Al Arabi daily released another statement by Abu Hafs that warned of
additional attacks.
"Our brigades are getting ready now for the coming strike," Abu Hafs
said in a statement dated March 15. "Whose turn will it be next? Is it
Japan, America, Italy, Britain, Saudi Arabia or Australia?"
Western intelligence agencies have assessed that the Madrid train
bombings were the work of Al Qaida-inspired insurgency groups from Morocco.
Officials said they have determined a link between the strikes in Madrid
and the suicide bombings in Casablanca in May 2003.
Abu Hafs has claimed responsibility for the November 2003 suicide
attacks in Istanbul as well as an earlier bombing of United Nations
headquarters in Baghdad. But the analysts said those suspected of carrying
out the Istanbul attacks did not report any link to Abu Hafs, the
communiques of which have also been signed "Al Qaida."
The analysts said the most puzzling aspect of Abu Hafs was its offer to
end Al Qaida attacks in Europe. Abu Hafs said it was suspending attacks in
Spain to allow its new socialist government to honor a pledge to withdraw
from Iraq. Abu Hafs said it also supports the re-election campaign of
President
George Bush.
"We change and destroy countries," the statement said. "We even
influence the international economy, and this is God's blessing to us."
On Thursday, Abu Hafs posted a purported Al Qaida statement on an
Islamic website that pledged to avenge the killing of Khaled Ali Haj in
Riyad on Monday. Ali Haj was identified as Al Qaida's operations chief for
the Gulf region and responsible for suicide strikes on foreign compounds in
Riyad during 2003.
The Abu Hafs warnings were among a plethora of statements purportedly
by Al Qaida cells posted on Islamic websites over the last few months. In
December 2003, Global Islamic Media warned of an imminent Islamic attack
on the United States called Operation Cave of Darkness. In a departure from
Al Qaida's previous communiques, the website demanded the
return of gold to Islamic insurgents and the restoration of borders of Arab
and Islamic states.
Another Islamic website, www.khayma.com., predicted the collapse of the
United States. But the style of the communique was determined as being
different from Al Qaida statements and most intelligence analysts dismissed
the warning as fraudulent.
Meanwhile, a European Commission report criticized implementation of
European Union agreements to battle insurgency groups and called for a
database of criminal records on insurgents throughout the continent. The
report also called on EU states to honor orders to seize bank assets of Al
Qaida-inspired insurgents.
"It is essential in the fight against terrorism for the relevant
services to have the fullest and most up-to-date information possible in
their respective fields, including information on convictions," the report
said.
