DUBAI ø The United Arab Emirates has broken away from the Arab consensus against democratic reforms.

UAE Defense Minister Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum agreed with the United States for the need for immediate reform and democracy in the Arab world. Al Maktoum warned that Arab leaders would be swept away unless they changed their regimes.

"I tell my fellow Arab leaders: 'If you do not change, you will be changed," Al Maktoum told the Arab Strategy Forum in Dubai on Monday. "If you do not initiate radical reforms that restore respect for public duty and uphold principles of transparency, justice and accountability, then your people will resent you and history will judge you harshly.'"

It was the first time an Arab leader warned of the prospect of regime change unless the Arab world adopted democracy and reforms. Dubai does not hold elections or allow political parties.

On Dec. 11, Arab and Islamic states attending a conference in Morocco rejected a U.S. appeal to launch an immediate reform campaign. Instead, they called for any reform effort to be linked to the resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

"Many of us are used to blaming the failure of our efforts at economic and social development on those crises as well as on foreign influences," Al Maktoum said.

[In Saudi Arabia, dissidents have been organizing a protest against the kingdom's violation of human rights. Saudi opposition sources said an organizers of the protest was arrested on Dec. 11.]

Al Maktoum, who is also the crown prince of Dubai, expressed appreciation for the U.S. drive to introduce democracy in the Middle East.

But he told the three-day conference that Arab states must devise their own programs for reform.

"As for forces in the international community that place our region in the eye of the storm and propose successive projects of change and reform, we are grateful for their interest," Al Maktoum told an audience of 1,500 people. "We are indeed in need of help but reform cannot be realized by foreign projects and ready-made plans. And they cannot be realized by tanks and cannons and manipulating crises instead of solving them."

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton warned Arab states that they could not afford to delay meaningful change. Clinton said the Arabs faced a choice of either terrorism and war or peace, development and democracy.

"There is a negative scenario in which the Arab world would be dominated by terrorism, continuing conflict with Israel, no Palestinian state, some countries and terrorist groups seeking weapons of mass destruction, an exploding population and resistance to necessary political and social change," Clinton said. "The positive scenario is an Arab world at peace with Israel, a Palestinian state, regional cooperation for security against terrorism, an independent Iraq with a representative government and Iran giving up nuclear ambitions."

Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Britain, Prince Turki Al Faisal, envisioned a split in the Arab world by 2020. Turki told the forum that one Arab group would comprise Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Gulf Cooperation Council states and Yemen. The second group would be composed of North African states and be strongly linked to Europe.

Turki said Al Qaida-aligned groups would lose their support in the Arab world. He envisioned a sharp drop in recruits for the Islamic insurgency.

"Terrorist groups that use religion as a political stepping stone will wither and die," Turki said. "They will be unable to attract new recruits.

They will also face popular condemnation and rejection."