Israel is armed with greater military capabilities than a
decade ago and could decide to retaliate against any Iraqi missile strike during a
U.S.-led war against Baghdad.
A new report said Israel's
considerations for responding to any Iraqi missile strike include longer
strike capabilities and the assessment that Israel's restraint during the
1991 war harmed its deterrence against Middle East adversaries. The report advised the United States to prepare militarily for such a contingency.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has pledged to cooperate with the United
States in any war against Iraq. But Sharon has stressed that he would not be
bound to restraint if Iraq fires weapons of mass destruction against Israel, Middle East Newsline reported.
Despite incentives provided Israel by the United States, the report by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy raised the prospect that Israel would still
retaliate against an Iraqi missile attack. This could result in the loss of American
lives as in the 1967 Israeli attack on the U.S. naval spy vessel Liberty and
the Iraqi missile attack on the USS Stark in the Persian Gulf in 1987. In
both cases, the United States had refused to coordinate battle zones with
regional militaries.
The institute, in a report by researcher Max Abrahms, recommended that
the United States cooperate with Israel in case the Jewish state launches a
counter-attack on Iraq. The report, entitled "Easy on the Stick: Why the
United States Should Deconflict," said the cooperation should seek to
temporarily reduce zones of U.S. engagement in Iraq that would allow for any
Israeli strike in the western part of the country.
"This time, a U.S. refusal to deconflict may not be sufficient to
prevent Israeli retaliation," the report said. "Improvements in Israeli air-
and space-based intelligence-gathering and long-range strike capabilities
have increased Israel's ability to act against Iraq, independent of U.S.
assistance. For example, the Ofek-5 reconnaissance satellite's
high-resolution photos may allow Israel to locate and strike high-value
targets in Iraq without significant U.S. intelligence sharing."
Deconflicting would involve U.S. Air Force sharing of identification
friend
or foe [IFF] codes with the Israeli military. This would avoid U.S.
fighter-jets from mistaking approaching Israeli aircraft for enemy
warplanes.
During the 1991 war, the United States refused to provide Israel with
IFF codes and the Jewish state did not respond to Iraq's firing of 42
missiles. The U.S. military also refused to clear specific areas of Iraqi
airspace, which would have enabled Israel to mount a limited operation.
So far, the Bush administration has offered a series of incentives to
Israel not to respond to any Iraqi missile attack. They include
consideration of a $14 billion aid package, PAC-2 missile batteries and what
Israeli officials have termed unprecedented military cooperation.
"In light of the fact that Israel is committed to maintaining its
deterrent capability and now possesses better independent reconnaissance,
surveillance and strike capabilities than in 1991, there is greater
likelihood of Israeli retaliation against Iraq," the report said. "In such a
case, a decision to not deconflict could put at risk both coalition and
Israeli forces."
