Japan's glass: half full, half empty?

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Prime Minister Koizumi, his fashionable hairdo notwithstanding, was only on the television fringes of the G-7 [+ the Russians] at Evian. Fair enough, the star was President Bush Ñ even with his ÒenforcedÓ early exit to the Mideast parleys from what President Jacques Chirac had intended to be his coronation as leader not only of Old Europe but sponsor of newly invited Third Worlders, particularly the Africans. The Japanese presence was so eclipsed at what, after all, is supposed to be the world economic conference, that a New York Times report forgot to list it as one of the backers of the U.S. war in Iraq ø although not an on the ground military participant ø referring to JapanÕs economic role in the next sentence.

All of this to say that the world and most observers ø excluding those who always know just exactly what is happening ø are perplexed as always these days about Òwhither Japan?Ó

Koizumi, who sagged in the polls, appears to have made a comeback, and likely to hold his position as Liberal Democrat Party leader in the fall when the elections are held, and therefore, the prime ministry. The conflicts and loyalties among his PartyÕs factions ø indeed of all the parties in the Diet ø are as mysterious to foreigners as always. [Perhaps even as mysterious as what held FDRÕs collection of racists and segregationists, Communist, socialists, corporatists, and big city machines together during those long years of Democrat dominance before World War II.]

It isnÕt as though his record of achievements looks that good. The Japanese economy is still in a no growth/recession balance. His PR gambit to go to Pyongyang for a summit with North KoreaÕs Kim Il Jong blew up in his face. The North Koreans still havenÕt accounted for their bizarre kidnapping of Japanese nor given up their children, which raised the hackles of the Japanese public. China and both Koreas have used his flirtation with Japanese nationalism by praying at the Yasukuni shrine, a former state Shintoist site [and his inability to create an alternative national war memorial he once proposed].

But Koizumi has moved far along the path of rebuilding an eroding Japan-U.S. alliance. [Pyongyang helped mightily by flying a missile over Japan into the Pacific in 1998, and their ÒconfessionsÓ in the kidnappings.] President Bush gave him Òthe ranch treatmentÓ, something saved for only the AdministrationÕs most important VIPs. [At Evian, there was that tap on the shoulder at BushÕs TV camera entry, the kind of intimacy which is supposed to connote mutual understanding.] Koizumi was able to commit warcraft to support operations during Iraq II [remembering that JapanÕs $10 billion contribution to the Gulf War went unnoticed]. He appears to have committed Japan to a blockade of North Korea ø if and when that becomes the only means to force PyongyangÕs hand as hawks in the Administration believe. He recently seemed to be going on the record for an anti-missile defense, presumably coordinated with the U.S.Õ efforts.

On the economic front, Koizumi has moved to bail out JapanÕs fifth largest bank with a requested $16.5 billion of public funds. The unresolved indebtedness of Japanese banks and their ÒcronyÓ operations with Òfamily companiesÓ has been seen by most foreign observers as the principle problem of Japan economic restructuring. And despite the fact that it has been seen as one of the few public issues on which the voter could be mobilized, it appears to have gone down quietly. It may well set the pattern for the nationalization of JapanÕs other debt-ridden banks. TokyoÕs foreign exchange reserves keep growing; so much so that the bank of Japan has begun an aggressive campaign [reportedly $350 million daily] to lower the value of the yen rising against the dollar, presumably threatening JapanÕs exports which have kept the worldÕs second economy afloat. [Europe reports Japanese automakers are moving much faster than announced targets in repeating their American invasion, which continues unabated.] Is the Japanese economy being Òhollowed outÓ by manufacturing moving to China, South Korea, and Southeast Asia? Maybe. But the latest news is that the next bombshell in flat screens is coming out of a brand new Japan plant ø not from South Korea which had a virtual monopoly in this important computer/TV component.

As always, the conundrum continues: is Japan, where continuity has always been the most enduring component of life Ñ the Great Pacific War despite all its suffering sometimes seems only an interregnum Ñ even in the face of revolutionary changes, moving again into the 21st century? Or are the pessimists right, that Japan has fallen behind after its spectacular flight into stardom in the postWWII world and will drop back behind China, and perhaps even a reunited Korea, as a second rank country with a declining birthrate and world role?