Iran: Sec. Powell's missing link

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

ÒThe leg bone is connected to the shin bone, the shin bone is connectedÉdem bones, dem bones, dem bonesÓ.

Sec. Powell has been running the Mideast bases in pursuit of the so-called ÒroadmapÓ solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The glaring omission, even though ÒsecretÓ talks are said to have been held in Switzerland under UN auspices, is Tehran. Washington has no diplomatic relations with Iran. Nor, seemingly, for the moment, are the Persian ayatollahsÕ role being given weight in attempting a Israeli-Palestinian modus operandi.

Not that anyone can blame Powell for avoiding the issue. Iran is a bundle of contradictions defying even the ÒnormsÓ of the regionÕs cat cradle of conflicts. Its 70 million people represent one of the most powerful elements in the regionÕs equation. But mismanagement and corruption have bankrupted an economy with 10% of the worldÕs oil and gas reserves. Its growth rate barely keeps up with an expanding population. Half its educated are unemployed, a quarter of its uneducated workforce jobless despite being OPECÕs No. 2 oil player.

Washington continues to maintain sanctions against Iran as, according to the U.S. State Department's annual "Patterns of Global Terrorism-2002 report, Òthe most active state sponsor of terrorismÓ. President BushÕs denunciation of Iran as one of Òthe axis of evilÓ builds on TehranÕs implication in the 1996 truck bombing of Khobar Towers, a U.S. military residence in Saudi Arabia, which killed 19 U.S. servicemen. In January 2002, the Israelis intercepted a ship carrying Iranian weapons bound for the Palestinians. Although CENTO command has just disarmed anti-Tehran guerillas operating from Iraq, there is growing evidence TehranÕs ayatollahs are funding elements in IraqÕs majority ShiÕa against U.S. efforts to stabilize a representative Baghdad regime.

But it is TehranÕs Syrian alliance through which it provides financial aid to terrorist organizations among the Palestinians that militates directly against PowellÕs efforts. Almost before Powell got out of Damascus, President Basher al-Asaad was denying that as a result of developments in Iraq and U.S. pressure he would crack down on these operations as Powell publicly announced. With DamascusÕ lucrative black market deals circumventing the UN sanctions on Iraq gone, the U.S. had hoped the new Mideast geopolitical picture would hustle Syria into line, at least to talk negotiations with Israel. But countervailing pressure from Tehran must have been too much for DamascusÕ novice dictator. Avi Dichter, director of Israel's Shin Bet, warns Iran is trying to fan terrorism to cause difficulties for Abu Mazen, the new Palestinian prime minister on whom Washington is banking for a breakthrough.

Washington has also to consider that Iran possesses weapons of mass destruction Ñ chemicals as well as bombs and shells to deliver them. Tehran has an active biological weapons program through acquisition of "dual-use" technologies. Finally, with help from Russia, Iran is building a nuclear power plant which could produce fissionable material from its uranium deposits, an anomaly in a country that has vast untapped oil and gas energy reserves. Iran has manufactured and flight-tested the Shahab-3 missile with a range of 1,300 kilometers Ñ enough to hit Israel or Saudi Arabia. And Tehran is developing longer range missiles, including one that it says will launch satellites but experts say could be an intercontinental ballistic missile.

Still, Iran is not Sadaam HusseinÕs personal dictatorship. A continuing struggle goes on between so-called moderates led by popularly elected President Khatami and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supreme leader of the Council of Elders. The moderates want a deal with the U.S. which could help salvage their economy. After 20 years they finally have a new foreign investment law. And American companies are anxious to follow Japanese and European firms in developing its vast resources. But Khamenei trumps Khatami and his supporters through continued control by Islamic fanatics of part of the military, so-called religious slush funds, and the security apparatus.

ÒIraqÓ has led to some rethinking in Tehran as elsewhere. "We are now face to face with the American Great Satan all around us: in the Caspian region, in Afghanistan, in the Persian Gulf, in Turkey, and now in Iraq", a conservative leader, Rafsanjani said. "We have to take preemptive action to defend our system." He has, however, proposed a plebiscite on reestablishing relations with the U.S., total anathema since Ayatollah Khomeini toppled the U.S.Õ ally, the Shah, in 1979, denouncing America as Òthe Great SatanÓ.

In early May half the Iranian parliament members signed an open letter saying Iran is in "a critical situation" and the ruling establishment risked losing the support of the people, who had overwhelmingly voted for reform. And they warned the hard-line religious how "the Iraqi people stood by without any reaction during the occupation of their country". The silence is deafening