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A SENSE OF ASIA

'Korea' is the best argument for 'Iraq'


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By Sol Sanders
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Sol W. Sanders

February 17, 2003

The great irony of the world crisis is that North Korea is the best reason for an aggressive solution to ÒIraqÓ ø alas! one the Administration is politically hamstrung to make publicly.

What does the world community do with a ruthless dictator with atomic toys which, given his desperation, he is likely to sell to terrorists? Since you spent more than a decade pandering to the idea that he would come to his senses ø i.e., rebuild a society where his people would not starve ø your options have narrowed to only one: to mobilize his powerful neighbors to force his disarmament.

But then what does the world community do with another ruthless dictator who wants atomic weapons to enhance his chemical and biological arsenal, who has oil to fund black market deliveries, and who is surrounded by weak neighbors? Since you have spent more than a decade working through the vaunted UN and failed, your options have narrowed to using force with the help of whatever allies you can find Ñ before he blackmails you as his rogue twin in the East is already doing.

One of the more foolish arguments going around ø for example, that the UN inspectors should, could and would find evidence of weapons of mass destruction after a decade of failure ø is that there is inconsistency. Of course statecraft requires high principles but also the practicality of dealing with individual situations that, in the nature of things, are different.

North Korea apparently has nuclear weapons, artillery capable of destroying Seoul, widely dispersed nuclear facilities heavily bunkered against air attack, and missiles capable of wreaking havoc on South Korea and Japan, perhaps the U.S.. The irrationality of North Korean dictator Kim Il Jong is probably exaggerated; he is a cunning opponent. Still we must calculate the possibility that his failing military elite might choose a mad exit.

For the moment Ñ because a Òpost-IraqÓ world will look very different, probably much better for the U.S. Ñ Washington has no option but to temporize and hone its diplomacy. [The ability of the priggish French Foreign Minister de Villepin to make mincemeat of us at the UN is not encouraging.]

Most significant is massaging South Korea where its remarkable economic success and its new freedoms have instilled a new hubris. We are dealing with a new, amateurish president. He cultivates the fetish that he has never traveled abroad and particularly to the U.S.. He has swallowed revisionist history, turning his back on half century of South Korean-U.S. alliance sealed in blood. He sees the U.S. as the villain in the current imbroglio and what he and his friends think has been dictatorial policies from Washington. Most importantly, like many South Koreans on the left ø and on the right ø he looks to China, South KoreaÕs new No. 1 trading partner as an ally against Japan, KoreaÕs old nemesis. [JapanÕs Prime Minister Koizumi, having lost his face in his own groveling to Pyongyang last year Ñ if he is giving thought to anything but bolstering his flagging popularity ø seems content to let the Japanese hawks take over and Washington again lead.]

And, that, of course is where Seoul and WashingtonÕs views come together. Beijing, as North KoreaÕs only ally [however much Chinese officials may deprecate their abilities to influence Kim], must be at the heart of any effort to curb North Korea. China has said she, like the U.S., does not want a nuclearized Korean peninsular ø and that seems genuine for it would most certainly trigger nuclear weapons in Japan and possibly Taiwan. Although it has waffled, Beijing apparently endorses the International Atomic Energy Agency [for more than 20 years that pathetic bureaucratic creature in the Iraq crisis] referring PyongyangÕs violations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to the Security Council.

Despite the recent weasel performance there, it does provide a platform for the allies ø the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, perhaps Russia ø to put pressure on Beijing to throw its weight around in Pyongyang.

And that weight is considerable: China is the overwhelming supplier of energy and food keeping the North Koreans limping along. Even in the midst of a leadership struggle ø the National PeopleÕs Assembly in March apparently will be a showdown between President Jiang Zemin and Òthe fourth generationÓ who want him to bow out ø it is time to talk forcibly to the Chinese. Washington, after all, has an ace to play ø the $100 billion and rapidly rising U.S. trade deficit that is funding the prosperity of ChinaÕs coastal provinces. Perhaps no Òfinal dealÓ can be concluded now; there are too many issues between Washington and Beijing. But it is a time for more forceful diplomacy when Vice President Cheney goes to Beijing in March, rather than the Òbeautiful China, beautiful AmericaÓ which has characterized the recent past.

Sol W. Sanders, (solsanders@comcast.net), is an Asian specialist with more than 25 years in the region, and a former correspondent for Business Week, U.S. News & World Report and United Press International. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.

February 17, 2003

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