Musharraf the whirling dervish

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

President-Gen. MusharrafÕs juggling act is becoming more and more frenetic, dogged by the sins of earlier Pakistan regimesÕ and pulls from different directions.

He has just returned from an historic visit to Moscow, groundbreaking given the longtime lovefest between India and the Soviets/Russians. Apparently it was an effort to enlist a Russian mediating role with New Delhi. [A telephone call from Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee to President Putin on the eve of MusharrafÕs arrival seemed to have thrown a wet blanket on that.] And Putin apparently hoped for collaboration with Pakistan in helping to solve his cancerous Chechnya problem and possible ollaboration in MoscowÕs effort to maintain a role in Afghanistan and Central Asia. And there may be even be some trade possibilities. [Indian sales are anemic against the huge new proposed Moscow arms purchases]. But there seems to have been more diplomatic niceties than progress.

At the same time Pakistan Foreign Minister Kasuri during an extended visit to Washington was trying to defuse frictions. With both diaspora Pakistanis and, Indians, particularly, adroitly lobbying in the Congress, Washington has become a battleground for Pakistan-India issues as well as bilateral relations with the U.S. Kasuri was hounded by old skeletons from previous regimes ø continuing media speculation Islamabad taught the North Koreans how to process plutonium [denied vehemently by Pakistan] and Sec. of State Powell arguing at the UN that proof of the highly contested link between Al Qaida and Sadaam Hussein was in part activities at the Iraqi embassy in Islamabad during the days when Pakistan was virtually Taliban AfghanistanÕs only friend.

It didnÕt help, either that at the tailend of KasuriÕs visit, Washington raised its level of terrorist alert, in part linked to a search for a Pakistani terrorist suspect illegally in the U.S. There were echoes from Europe where Italian authorities arrested illegal Pakistani aliens in Naples and Venice identified as terrorists. Kasuri got only a postponement of the deadline requiring Pakistani nationals residing in the U.S. to register with Immigration and Naturalization Service, which has led to the expulsion of illegals who turned up to register, and has been bitterly criticized in Pakistan. There are rumbles of less cooperation in chasing Al Qaida remnants from Afghanistan refuged in the border areas of Pakistan where IslamabadÕs writ has never run strong in imitation of the long and only partially successful effort of British Imperial India to pacify the area.

Hardly were the travelers back when a new crisis broke out. The Indians accused Pakistan of handing cash to a Kashmiri woman ø New Delhi said to fund terrorism in Kashmir, the Pakistanis to fund her travel to an international human rights meeting. There has been a tit for tat expulsion of diplomats, not that there has been much communication lately except inflammatory media statements over the two nuclear powerÕs disagreements. In disputed Kashmir, there is a daily half dozen victims of the insurgency and the counter-terror. New Delhi complains constantly to Washington that Pakistani infiltration continues, that the Indians, too, have the right to defend themselves against ÒterroristsÓ. Last yearÕs upset elections had thrown out the old New Delhi-backed, corrupt local regime. It seemed to offer some hope for a new round of communication among the parties, if not negotiations. But that has flopped as New Delhi has just closed down the separatists New Delhi ÒmissionÓ [those advocating accession to Pakistan and independence and everything in between and calling for a tripartite negotiation among the two countries and Kashmiris.

Musharraf, under pressure from Washington and London to restore ÒdemocracyÓ having managed to put together an elected government majority through old tried and true Pakistani politics, now faces another round in an upper house. But a partial electoral system and a relatively free vote has produced an Islamicist majority in the two border provinces regional assemblies. Their fiery anti-American, pro-Taliban and Al Qaida rhetoric notwithstanding, the central governmentÕs control is assured. But they will complicate U.S. attempt military and civilian operatives to clean up remaining terroristsÕ nests. And cross-border hot pursuit and FBI and CIA presence is one more propaganda stick for the Islamicists to use in fanning xenophobiaø and against MusharrafÕs anti-terrorist alliance with Washington.

Add to top all of this sporadic terrorists incidents in PakistanÕs major cities, many related to older ethnic and religious feuds and you see why Musharraf and his army supporters have their hands full. Needless to say, none of this is helpful to MusharrafÕs long-term problem of getting the bankrupt Pakistan economy off its back. [Anti-terrorist alerts force foreign investors to meet Pakistan colleagues in Dubai.]

All but the militaryÕs most bitter enemies among the political parties [who bear responsibility for much of the present situation], are holding their breath and rooting for the little general. Whatever MusharrafÕs failings, if his ballet turns into a dance of death, Washington policymakers, India, and the Pakistanis could be in for even worse.