WMD proliferation: So many bottles, so many genies

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

With two major crises of handling weapons of mass destruction in the hands of rogue states, Iraq and North Korea, Washington has to keep looking over its shoulder at the nuclear confrontation in the Indo-Pakistan subcontinent.

True, India has just announced a long awaited control apparatus for its nuclear weapons. The Indians have set up a military command structure with physical control of its weapons including the appointment of a Commander-in-Chief, Strategic Forces Command to manage and administer all Strategic Forces. A Nuclear Command Authority, an overarching political structure, has been created as the ÔÔsole body which can authorize the use of nuclear weaponsÓ. It puts final decision-making in the hands of the prime minister.

There is no public discussion of what happens if the prime minister cannot fulfill this function ø not an idle speculation given the current prime ministerÕs age and health. Nor is there any remedy for what most observers believe is the very long lead time for alarm among the three nuclear-neighbors in the South Asia area ø India, Pakistan and China ø as compared with the elaborateÓ hot linesÓ during The Cold War between Washington-Moscow.

Civilian control is enhanced and the decisions are not left to any military tactics suddenly developing in a war situation. India, at a time of accusations that Pakistan played a role in the North KoreansÕ latest nuclear efforts, promises that it will not be a party to proliferation to other countries. But, if you read the small print, the long-held Indian position of Òno first strikeÓ has now been watered down. New Delhi warns, in effect, arguing that it is emulating an American policy, nukes might be a response to bacteriological or chemical warfare. Pakistan has never ruled out first use, saying it would launch nukes if its territorial integrity were threatened. And although he later backed away from it, President Gen. Musharraf seemed to be reiterating this position with his latest statement on what might have happened during last yearÕs crisis. Mushaerraf told a military meeting he had informed New Delhi when deployment of Indian and Pakistan forces were at their height, that New Delhi would be met with Òunconventional weaponsÓ.

There is general agreement that India has superior military capacity and could win a perhaps clumsy but finally victorious campaign. And, therefore, Pakistan would be tempted to resort to nuclear missiles. Pakistan already has its own Nuclear Command and Control Authority made up of military, political and scientific officials with Musharraf having the final say. Jane's Strategic Weapons System in London estimates India has 100 to 150 warheads and Pakistan 25 to 50.

In the latest round from which Mursharraf quickly backed off, the interpretation was that he had meant nuclear weapons. But the bombast fed a recent series of revelations by Indian generals of just how close India had been to launching war after the terrorist attack which almost eliminated New DelhiÕs parliamentary leadership. This kiss and tell posturing by retiring military, coupled with the widely believed story of a rogue Indian commander stopped only by American satellite intelligence relayed to leaders in both countries, leads to continuing fear an accidental nuclear exchange.

Washington ø and China ø played a behind the scenes role in defusing the crisis last year. But there are no peace negotiations. And while both sides have begun to pull back from the deployments, domestic political considerations create an atmosphere in which the rhetoric continues at a high level. Musharraf is struggling with small but potent forces of Islamic fundamentalism allied to Osama Ben LadinÕs Al Qaeda and other Moslem terrorists. India is about to go into a series of provincial elections where the ruling party has chosen a Hindu revivalist strategy.

The nightmare of an accidental nuclear exchange has haunted the Subcontinent since both sides demonstrated that they not only had nuclear weapons but the short-range missile capability. Daily skirmishes in Kashmir continue with their daily half dozen deaths of ÒinfiltratorsÓ, local ÒactivistsÓ, Indian military security personnel and civilians, and inflammatory rhetoric continues on both sides from high officials.

Nuclear and missile proliferation has been a concern of Washington policymakers for decades. But the Indo-Pakistan nuclear standoff with all its complications could well be the pattern for other such confrontations if countries like Iraq, Iran, Libya, finally achieve their goal of acquiring nuclear weapons. But with the dramatization of the possibilities that Sadaam Hussein is attempting such capabilities, and the fact that an impoverished, failing, starving North Korea already not only has them but is spreading them around the world, the U.S. is face to face with more than one genie out of the bottle.