Pakistan & India: Terrorism requires fexible response

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Sadaam HusseinÕs dramatic capture almost obscured the continuing fragile balance in Pakistan and the intricate international links of the war on terrorism. For almost simultaneously, President Gen. Musharraf escaped assassination by seconds. Five explosive devices blew a bridge over which his convoy was passing. First reports indicate sophistication of the attempt implicates experienced munitions experts. The site Ñ the old British Indian Rawalpindi Cantonement which houses the Pakistani military headquarters Ñ makes the affair all the more critical.

Conspiratorial theories not withstanding [fed by the fact there has been heavy Islamic fundamentalists infiltration of intelligence services, military, and even the scientific community], signs point to the Pakistani/ foreign Islamicist terrorists for whom Pakistan and U.S. forces are searching tribal areas along the Pakistani-Afghanistan border. Musharraf was the object of at least one earlier assassination attempt, its alleged perpetrators now being tried as agents of Osama Ben Ladin. But OsamaÕs operatives shade into fundamentalist sympathizers in PakistanÕs legal political parties, in the countryÕs volatile cities slums, and among radical organizations Musharraf bans but which constantly reconfigure. Musharraf has played a cat and mouse game with these elements, dogged by pressure from Washington for more action and accusations by PakistanÕs political class he has largely excluded from power that he is a puppet of the U.S.

Musharaff gave the only response politically possible to the attempted coup [for no one knows just what would happen were he to suddenly disappear from the scene]; he went off to a wedding a few hours later, welcomed Indonesian President Megawati on a state visit. When fundamentalist politicians called a national strike, he suddenly proclaimed a national holiday for the ikonized pre-independence poet and intellectual father of Pakistan, Iqbal. The strike largely fizzled.

Furthermore, Musharraf ø with Indian collaboration ø intends to hold a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation [SAARC] session in January. The meeting, earlier postponed because of friction between its two principle partners, could be crucial in the series of Òconfidence buildingÓ measures undertaken by the two adversaries. Islamabad called a unilateral cease fire in the unofficial war along the Line of Control in disputed Jammu-Kashmir. India responded with offers to restore communications and transportation, particularly important to 250 million Indian Moslems, many with Pakistani family. A hoped for bilateral meeting between Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee at the SAARC could move the long and complicated negotiations to find solutions to problems that divide the two nuclear-armed countries that have fought three and a half wars since independence in 1947.

Almost daily clashes still continue between Indian security forces and ÒactivistsÓ in Kashmir. New Delhi says this is caused by continued Pakistan sponsorship of guerrillas in training camps in Pakistan-held Kashmir who infiltrate across the border. But powerful indigenous Kashmiri groups demand an end to the link to India, independence or adherence to Pakistan. New Delhi has broadened its consultation with local Kashmiris ø instead of the puppet government it sponsored for decades, defeated in the last and probably first fair elections. But it refuses demands of radical Kashmiris: a three-cornered negotiation among India, the Kashmiris and Pakistan. Nor does India accept the old plebescite UN proposal, refusing, at least theoretically, all foreign mediation/arbitration.

Still, the world moves on ø even in the subcontinent notorious for its lack of a sense of time. VajpayeeÕs government has just won an unexpected political victory, taking over three state governments. Many observers see it as a harbinger of next yearÕs national elections. The victory resulted from VajpayeeÕs BJPÕs pragmatic strategy: it abandoned, at least momentarily, its Hindu revivalism in favor of patchwork alliances with local parties and an accent on economic issues. Recent acknowledgement by Indian security authorities of young Moslem professionals terrorist cadres ø not unlike the Al Qaeda converts in Western Europe Ñ as a reaction to Hindu militantsÕ attacks on Moslems, has had an effect.. Vajpayee, long considered the vote-getting ÒmoderateÕ figurehead in his BJP, has launched his own personal peace offensive Ñ with China, PakistanÕs ally, as well as with Islamabad. The SAARC meeting could well be the test of ending the see-saw that has constantly dogged Indian-Pakistan relations over the past half century.

Musharraf will have to continue to face down Islamic fundamentalists and professional India-haters who want no concessions. He is up against the atavistic feeling among subcontinental Moslems that somehow, some way, Hindu rhetoric and guile always outsmart them. Just as Vajpayee made a major breakthrough by initiating Òpeace negotiationsÓ before there was a absolute end to Kashmiri infiltration which had been the Indian governmentÕs earlier stance, Musharraf has half-conceded the Pakistan redline that any negotiation would have to begin with Kashmir as the fundamental issue. India wants to negotiate new water agreements as well as the possible transit of Iranian gas to feed its growing industrial boom.

Fighting terrorism in the subcontinent, like everywhere else, is going to demand flexibility as well as longterm commitment.