Bush's 50,000-mile dash through Asia

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See the Sol Sanders Archive By Sol Sanders SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

President BushÕs Asian trip agenda ø centered on the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Council chiefs of state meeting in Bangkok Oct. 18-19 ø must look like a pocket encyclopedia. Using a presidential visit, the PresidentÕs advisers in State and at the Pentagon probably hope for resolution to a welter of unfinished business:

Japan Ñ Prime Minister Koizumi meets Bush with a $1.5 billion deposit in the Iraq reconstruction kitty, the first installment of a scheduled $5 billion in grants and loans, unmatched elsewhere among the U.S.' allies. But Bush will be asking when the promised precedent-setting expeditionary force, also promised, is arriving. With public opinion against the first dispatch of troops into a war zone since World War II, Koizumi probably isnÕt going to go public since he has elections for early November. There is coordination of Japanese and American positions on North Korea nuclear weapons. [There isnÕt much hope for including South Korea given the now chaotic political scene where President Roh has tricked up a referendum on his self-admittedly limping eight-month old presidency.] And what about that massive oil deal

Japan has put together with Iran, and ought, from WashingtonÕs perspective, to be a lever on TehranÕs nuclear weapons program? Bush may have only part of KoizumiÕs attention, one eye on elections next month, as usual pretty predictable in Japan. But with merger of two conservative opposition parties, the earlier possibility his own Liberal Democrats could have a majority may be up for grabs.

China ø In Bangkok, the new boy on the block President Hu Jintao is crucial to the North Korean problem. BeijingÕs sponsorship of the August six power meeting didnÕt accomplish anything but China presumably has been pushing for another meeting. Behind the bombastic, almost daily taunts from Pyongyang to Washington, is the growing U.S. intelligence estimate North Koreans just may, may, be moving ahead with both nuclear weapons and missile development faster than earlier believed possible. ThereÕs a suspicion China has a tiger by the tail what with rumors its military reinforced Korean ethnic border areas. Bush, apparently, meets Hu with a concession: Sec. of State Powell hinted to a group of Washington reporters: the U.S. was willing to make a turn on its refusal for non-aggression pact ÒguaranteesÓ. Just how the U.S. [and even China] could insure that a bankrupt, military, jingoistic regime can be insured against its own strategies isnÕt clear. Nor is there any answer to ReaganÕs old Òtrust but verifyÓ formula given the sorry history of UN International Atomic Energy Agency in Iraq and Iran, and North KoreaÕs long and bloody history as a rogue state.

Thailand ø Bush will overlook BangkokÕs years of denial it had any international terrorist problem, especially in its southern Moslem provinces, after the successful capture of one of the most important Al Qaida leaders in the Southeast Asia. The report that combined U.S. and Southeast Asia countriesÕ anti-terrorist counterintelligence discovered a plot against the Bangkok APEC meeting will certainly keep the Secret Service busier than usual. And the risk points up the importance the Administration puts on the whole trip.

The Philippines ø President Arroyo has just announced she is running for president again. Despite ManilaÕs fumblings [prison escapes, ambushes, official corruption, etc.], the U.S. needs Philippines cooperation to be sure that its Moslem southern islands do not continue as part of the international Islamicist network. And that is probably going to call for more U.S. assistance, a delicate political matter where ArroyoÕs opposition will want to use any American military presence as a rabble rousing nationalist appeal.

Indonesia ø The recent successful prosecutions of Islamicist terrorists for their crimes in Bali and in Dajakarta has modified the picture of President MegawatiÕs reluctance to take on her Moslem politicians. There is the delicate issue of Aceh, the Moslem-oriented drive for independence in northern Sumatra, where accusations of human rights violations [and unresolved war crimes in the now independent East Timor] has inhibited closer relations between U.S. and Indonesian military. Given the still rocky post-Soeharto dictatorship political scene, the incredible difficulty of policing the vast archipelago, the less than warm relations with neighboring Australia, Bush will have to take a gently-gently line in what is always an excruciatingly slow-moving Indonesian scene.

Australia ø The American President will find some relief at the end of the trip where Prime Minister Howard is perhaps BushÕs closest ally in the worldwide anti-terrorist war, defending his own preempting actions among CanberraÕs South Seas and Papua-New Guinea neighbors where near anarchy threatens to create terrorist sanctuaries. HowardÕs bitter critics were brought to a bloody realization that his ÒhawkishÓ views were not unfounded when 88 young Aussie tourists were murdered by terrorists in Bali, AustraliaÕs 9/11. But Howard is playing catch-up, too, two decades in which Australians were encouraged to believe that they had no enemies. AustraliaÕs small but expert special forces are probably not going to be available beyond its own neighborhood as the President looks for new backup in Iraq. Bush may have given up jogging, but it will be as much of a dash as he has undertaken in his busy presidency.